Change in stance due to pressure

By K. K. Katyal

NEW DELHI, JULY 8. The negative change in the rhetoric from Islamabad is too blatant to be missed but the reasons for the sudden variation of the tune are not clear. The foreign policy establishment here could not have ignored this but kept its comments low-key. According to one explanation in diplomatic and non-official quarters, the tough line represents the Pakistan Government's response to internal pressures, especially within the Army, which could have felt uncomfortable with the recent utterances of the President and Chief Executive, Gen. Pervez Musharraf. He was, perhaps, seen as projecting too soft and moderate an image. The General could also be having in mind the fundamentalist outfits which could have misconstrued the earlier signals. In particular, he was keen on dispelling the impression of having downgraded the priority to Kashmir.

In the recent past, the Pakistan armed forces personnel had acquired pronounced extremist tendencies. This was evident from the steady increase in the number of bearded cadets, at the passing-out parades, apart from other factors. Opinions differ on the proximity of the armed forces to the extremist elements. Some feel they are fairly close. According to others, it is a divided picture - many are personally opposed to the jehadis but want to use them to put pressure on India, while others are afraid of the jehadis stepping up their activities within Pakistan (obviously, to its detriment). A small minority would like Pakistan to be Talibanised. As seen by some Western observers, having a deep insight into the developments in Pakistan, a deterioration in the situation there would give the jehadis an opening within the country itself, with consequences not difficult to imagine. Whatever the variations, there is no mistaking the deep anti- India sentiment and the stridency of rhetoric on Kashmir.

Harsh reality

Given this reality, any softening of the stance against India could not have gone well with the Army. This, thus, created a strong internal compulsion for the Pakistani ruling establishment to come out with mollifying statements and to clear the ``misunderstandings''.

Subsequently, when India announced unilateral steps, calculated to build confidence, to address the security issues, to promote mutual contacts in trade, education and the like and made humanitarian gestures, the tough stance was found doubly useful - in countering a positive impact on various sections of Pakistani society. As seen by Islamabad, India's unilateralism was meant to divert attention from the ``core issue'' and to set the agenda for the Agra summit. Though the decision to step up the rhetoric pre-dated the announcement of the package by New Delhi, it came handy to the Pakistani establishment to deal with the new situation.

Officially, Pakistan did not respond to the New Delhi initiative on the ground that the various proposals had not been received through appropriate channels. At the same time, there were attempts to downplay the significance of what was described as diplomacy through the media.

Current thinking

The editorial comment in yesterday's Nawai-e-Wakt reflected the current thinking on the subject thus: ``According to India's calculations, promotion of trade and economic contacts, increase in free movement and ascendancy of the sentiments of goodwill would automatically push the Kashmir issue in the background. The recent step by India is part of this chain. Through its unilateral actions, it has sought to pressure the Musharraf Government to announce reciprocal goodwill measures. In the domestic context, any such approach could add to the difficulties of Gen. Musharraf, as the Pakistani and Kashmiri masses would not allow demonstration of goodwill towards India in the absence of New Delhi's categorical assurance to resolve the Kashmir dispute in keeping with their wishes and the U.N. resolutions.''

There is a sharp contrast in the nature of the pre- summit consultation processes, undertaken by the two sides.

Gen. Musharraf has been holding intensive, comprehensive discussions with different sections of society - politicians, religious groups, jehadi elements, editors and other media personalities, Kashmiri groups, retired bureaucrats and generals, apart from undertaking thorough internal discussions.

As against that, the Prime Minister, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee, had been pre-occupied with the Tamil Nadu situation, the Manipur problem, etc.

He did meet senior editors separately in the last few days, while talks with political party leaders are due to be held tomorrow.

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