Sri Lanka's concerns and choices

THE DIVIDING LINE between constitutional choices and political concerns is becoming increasingly blurred in Sri Lanka. The President, Ms. Chandrika Kumaratunga's latest decision to order a referendum on the need for a new Constitution is so timed as to try and put the country on a fast track towards her proposals to reshape the fundamental features of the polity itself. Pushed to the centre stage are also the immediate political fortunes of the `ruling' People's Alliance (PA). Surely, Ms. Kumaratunga's legitimacy as the duly elected executive President remains unchallenged. However, there can be no doubt, too, that she has opted for a calculated risk of playing the constitutional architect at a critical time marked by the PA's perceived loss of parliamentary status as the `governing' coalition. In a sense, she is seeking to capitalise on the basic characteristics of Sri Lanka's present Constitution in a transparent bid to combine statecraft with some mundane objectives of creating a political cushion for the beleaguered PA. The opposition United National Party (UNP) is, of course, quick to accuse her of grasping for a concealed agenda of nothing less than ``dictatorship''. An angry denunciation of this order by the UNP leader, Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe, must be seen in the unimaginably murky context of accusations by some PA leaders that the UNP and the other opposition groups are engaged in a ``conspiratorial'' and ``treacherous'' game of thwarting the President's mission of fashioning the political destiny of Sri Lanka.

Now, Ms. Kumaratunga has so far managed to sustain her visionary enthusiasm for a fair constitutional deal for Sri Lanka's minority community of Tamils. Although she has often run foul of some extremist sections within the mainstream Sinhala society, her track record in office certainly does not smack of any neglect or negation of the interests of the majority community itself. Well known, too, is the President's sense of frustration over her inability to push for a virtual constitutional revolution in the face of inevitable objections from diverse groups within a politically conscious society. From her perspective, the problems arising out of a perceivably nihilist politics of the militant- separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) are in many ways compounded by the obscurantist negativism of some segments of the Sinhala community. A case can, therefore, be made for some political empathy with the President over her persistent dilemma. Yet, it is difficult to see the ruling dispensation's present parliamentary crisis as the ennobling backdrop for a momentous referendum on the country's constitutional future.

The unresolved parliamentary stalemate, evident in the PA's loss of its numerical majority and the ruling alliance's apparent hesitation to face a no-confidence motion sponsored by the Opposition, is sought to be addressed through a presidential prorogation of the House. The breathing space so gained will be utilised for a Constitution-changing referendum, scheduled for August 21. The issues at stake in the referendum span a wide spectrum - devolution and the related rights of the Tamils, besides a new and broad system of electoral and constitutional checks and balances at the national level. Closely related to such high stakes is the fact that the President's compulsions for a referendum have been largely determined by the manner in which Parliament has, over time, managed to stop her in her constitutional tracks. Now, it is entirely possible that an overwhelmingly decisive mandate for a new Constitution can transform the planned referendum into a national opportunity to move towards a resolution of the basic ethnic-political crisis among other issues. In the event, questions about the enforceability of the outcome will lose their political vigour. Yet, in fairness, the people's likely verdict on the statute reform cannot be interpreted as a guide to resolve the current parliamentary crisis. This should be addressed in the context of inter-party dynamics as in any democracy, irrespective also of the military confrontation between the Sri Lankan state and the LTTE.

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