New signs of hope in Nepal

THE DEMOCRATIC SELECTION of Nepal's new Prime Minister, Mr. Sher Bahadur Deuba, and his initial success in humouring the `Maoist' rebels prior to his assumption of office on Thursday has stirred new hopes in the Himalayan kingdom. The mass regicidal carnage in Kathmandu in early June and the intensification of the pent-up popular disenchantment with the previous Prime Minister, Mr. Girija Prasad Koirala, in that context had become a matter of national conscience. In the end, Mr. Koirala resigned in deference to the strong sentiments of the people. Although they did not rise in open revolt against him, they were deeply cognisant of the allegations of a corruption scandal under his regime as also his transparent inability to meet the increasingly violent challenge posed by the communist `revolutionaries' and his conspicuously inept responses to the popular outrage over the royal tragedy. It is against the backdrop of such spiralling discontent in the economically poor kingdom that Mr. Koirala quit. No less significantly, a candidate sponsored by him lost to Mr. Deuba in the subsequent election within the ruling Nepali Congress for the post of Prime Minister. Mr. Deuba's earlier tenure at the helm of a fragile coalition Government was not an inspiring chapter in Nepal's democracy in the decade since the abolition of absolute monarchy. However, Mr. Koirala, who reigned for a cumulatively long period in the ambience of a struggling democracy, did not have much to show for his work, either.

Mr. Deuba has already had to contend with the compulsions of factional politics within his party which at present commands a majority in the House of Representatives. This accounts for the delay in his swearing- in by a few days and in the formation of what is the first outline of a Cabinet. However, his obvious advantage at this time, unlike during his previous innings as Prime Minister, is the political goodwill he has managed to earn quickly over a critical issue. Now, the `Maoist' group, which wages a ``people's war'' and clamours for a republican constitution, has not been blamed by a palace-ordained probe panel for the ghoulish massacre of King Birendra and others. Yet, the outlawed communist outfit is seen in Nepal as either a devil or a saviour. With the `Maoist' rebel leader, Mr. Prachanda, readily accepting Mr. Deuba's appeal for a truce that could facilitate a negotiated settlement of the problems being projected during the ``people's war'', dramatic new possibilities are indicated.

Surely, Mr. Prachanda has only asked his guerrillas to stop offensive anti-state activities for the present to test the seriousness of the new Deuba administration. Mr. Prachanda does not also budge from his ideological position that the present uninspiring model of Nepalese democracy deserves to be violently overthrown, but he is willing to give Mr. Deuba's offer of negotiations a `reasonable' chance. Irrespective of the inevitable questions about the external sources of inspiration for the Nepalese `Maoists', the Himalayan kingdom has traditionally wanted to remain friendly with China as also India without being seen by either with suspicion. In recent years, New Delhi's concerns about Kathmandu's situational dilemmas have had much to do with India's painful belief that Pakistan has gained access to the Nepalese territory as a springboard for anti-India activities. The recent hijacking of an Indian Airlines plane in Kathmandu was only the most conspicuous example of these suspicions. In the West, Nepal is beginning to be seen as a soft conduit for regional destabilisation efforts by China or its ``surrogate'', Pakistan. The U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, Ms. Christina Rocca's current visit to Kathmandu with a message of support for Nepal's democracy is therefore important in the overall context of the kingdom's vulnerabilities.

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