Russia takes two steps closer to democracy

By Pran Chopra

MOSCOW, JULY 31. A few days ago Russia took two long steps closer to democracy. In mid- July a consolidation occurred in centrist politics which will put Russia more firmly on the Left-centre- Right spectrum of democratic politics. At the same time the President, Mr. Vladimir Putin signed into law a political parties Bill which is calculated to keep the spectrum clear of the clutter of parties that are only fragments and splinters .

The latest elections for the Duma, the Lower House of the Russian Parliament, in December 1999, as well as for the presidency, in January, 2000, had shown a severe imbalance. The far Left showed much greater strength than the far Right and the centre-Right and centre-Left were so divided that they barely held their own. At the start of the Presidential race, Mr. Putin had a rating of only two, the communist leader, Mr. Gennady Zyuganov 26, and Mr. Yevgeny Primakov, founder of the left-of- centre Fatherland party and former Prime Minister, had a rating of 19. Later, Mr. Primakov withdrew, for reasons which remain unclear, Mr. Putin's image as the Chechnya war hero shone burnished by a brilliant campaign run by his Minister for Emergencies, Mr. Sergei Shoigu, and he won with 53 per cent of the vote. But Mr. Zyuganov still managed to get 29 per cent. In the Duma elections, the far Left polled 28 per cent, far Right 15 per cent, and the centre-Left and Right 37 per cent.

This is not surprising in a country in which the death rate is rising; GDP growth rate is falling; well over a third of the population lives below the subsistence level; ``reforms'' hurt more people than they benefit; many of the natural leaders of the far Right, the very rich, are too corrupt to attract voters; and the middle class is a rising force but has not risen enough yet. The next calamity or scandal can tip the country into the lap of those who are suspected of wanting to take it back to the days of the State-controlled economy which was strong on social security.

The scene must be daunting for Mr. Putin. He may want a more cooperative Duma which will support his middle-of-the-road vision of reforms. But to get that he needs a party system which would be stronger in the middle. His managers tried to get that at the beginning of June this year but failed. They succeeded this mid- July with the strategic consent of the highly successful and Mayor of Moscow, Mr. Yuri Luzhkov, the second most powerful man in Fatherland. He accepted partnership with Unity, a party of the middle Right which is strongly backed by Mr. Putin.

With this backing the President got a Bill through Duma to forestall what has happened in many countries - when a long reigning single party, even if democratic, goes into decline, numerous parties mushroom and the electoral arena gets cluttered up. The new Act provides that for filling the 50 per cent Duma seats which are filled by the lists system, a party must ``register'' first, wait a year to be ``recognised'', then prove it has topped prescribed membership and spread thresholds and in the direct elections the result can be set aside if the voter turn out is less than 25 per cent or if all candidates have been ``rejected'' by more voters than have voted for any one candidate. There are also more stringent and detailed rules about the source of funds.

It is easy to see that under this Act a party which is ``national'' but very minor will not get far. Nor will a party get much ``national'' play if it is confined to one or two member- States of the federation, because it will have no ``recognised'' members in the Duma. The latter aspect has a defect but it is clear that with only sizeable parties as sizeable players, the socio-political and economic contours of the electorate will stand out more clearly and become more influential, and the Duma will have a better chance to reflect the total electorate much better.

As it is, there is talk of some rearrangement of marriages which were arranged in the sudden rush for the last Duma and Presidential elections. Younger communists, a hard core Left but not with the old Stalinists' aversion to ``too much democracy'' might put hands across the fence to Mr. Primakov's followers in Fatherland and the scattered lot of democratic socialists who are looking for home. On the Right, the modern conservatives may seek alternatives to the adventurous new capitalists who have been dislodging the buccaneering old ``oligarchs'' from the gigantic State monopolies as they are privatised. The latter are about the worst of the many bad legacies Mr. Yeltsin has left behind for Putin. The pot will boil more if Putin pursues an idea he is supposed to harbour - advance the next elections to the Duma if he can while the present wave for him holds. But all such possibilities only feed into the main possibility, that as the wheel of elections turns, democracy will stir Russia more than it has ever done.

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