Delicate choices before Putin

By Pran Chopra

MOSCOW, AUG 2. For the Russian President, Mr. Vladimir Putin there is more at stake than the ABM in his dialogue with the U.S. President, Mr. George Bush which began in Slovenia. Its outcome can twist a delicate choice he must make soon, and a wrong turn can take him into wilderness. An election result declared on July 30 has reminded him of this possibility.

Mr. Putin has had time enough as President to consolidate his popularity and to make up his wish list. Now he must convert his popularity into effective power, because he stands on the threshold of a critical phase. The third year is crucial for a four-year president who is allowed only one more term. Therefore, he must decide now whether he wants to work for a second term or for a place in history. Or to gamble for both. The first choice calls for popular measures for a while and then early elections for a Duma which would reinforce his presidency instead of trying, as the present Duma, to be a rival centre of power. The second choice calls for doing what the country needs most, whatever the electoral consequences. The third , despite the risk of falling between two stools, means giving bitter pills for 12 months and then some sweets for making the fourth year a platform for a second term.

Until he met Mr. Bush in Slovenia Mr. Putin had such a high public rating that he could either use it for taming the existing Duma despite the strong communist presence in it, or for getting a new one elected which would not try to resist him. He chose well, and Duma passed most government Bills without mauling them too much. In the meantime, he has also been able to stitch a party alliance behind him, which he did not have when he won his first Presidency. More important, he has been able to make a start with that which Russia lacked in the Yeltsin years, and for lacking which it had lacked everything - stability, confidence and the beginnings of a sense of pride in itself.

But that has not been the result of his policies, whether intended or implemented. It has been the result of his personality. He is rightly seen and admired as sincere, energetic, brisk without being hasty, daring to stand up to those upon whose patronage Mr. Yeltsin had become dependent in his later years, and all that has given him the benefit of a strong synergy between his images at home and abroad. The more the Russian people show confidence in him the higher he rises in the eyes of the world, and the more that happens, the more Russia rallies around him. That is how he was able to do a lot in the first half of the first term.

But a huge lot more remains for him to do yet because of the basket of vipers Yeltsin handed him. The flight of capital continues because corrupt oligarchs remain powerful. The country remains divided between the very rich and the very poor, between Moscow and the regions. The path of democracy is still rocky. A unified and unifying federal system is not in place as yet. Nor a genuinely multi-layered party system which alone can sustain it. Chechnya still festers. Little of the foreign investment is going into industrial economy or the infra-structure. Consumerism is rampant in Main Street, Moscow, and so much of what is consumed is imported that repatriation of profits from the sale of luxury goods is still adding to the outward flow, while taxes are being kept low to keep investors happy no matter what they invest in. The time is now for a sound strategy of development and specific policies to back it.

But this is precisely when the synergy may falter. Ever since Slovenia, Mr. Bush's people have been parading four placards in Moscow. One, America is gong ahead with NMD even if it means discarding ABM. Two, not much time can be spared or is needed for negotiations with Moscow because there is nothing much to negotiate. Three, the gap between the two countries is narrowing, which in the context only means Mr. Putin is coming along and the rest is postures. Four.

There are economic sticks and carrots for Russia, which the U.S. Commerce and Trade Secretaries brought along to Moscow just when Ms. Condoleezza Rice was here with her charm and arguments. But if anything is known publicly, it is that Mr. Putin is far from coming along. He made this as clear as can be in a superb press conference immediately after Slovenia. The full text has to be seen for his grasp of issues and detail and polite but firm rebuttals. But people will soon ask who is kidding whom, and either Mr. Putin's credibility will take a knock or the synergy. In the meantime, the communists will drum up Bush bashing for all they are worth, and what they are worth they have just demonstrated. In their first win in the important province of Nizhny Novgorod ,they have won the governorship by a big margin, defeating the incumbent Governor who was backed by the Unity Party, the only party which fully backs Mr. Putin.

A resolution of Russia's dilemma lies only in three possibilities. One. Technical failure of NMD. Two. Such opposition to it by Europe that Russia is seen in good company, not only China's. Three. Russian technologies can nullify America's NMD advantage at an affordable cost. The first two are outside Russia's control. The third remains to be seen. Therefore, if a second term for Mr. Putin is at stake, then also at stake is his hope to be remembered as the maker of post-Soviet Russia.

(Concluded)

Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Section  : International
Previous : Lashkar to set up radio station
Next     : E.U. needs foreign workers but resents their
           success