Blast puts Ulster deal in doubt

By Hasan Suroor

LONDON, AUG 4. The latest initiative to defuse the political crisis in Northern Ireland today looked headed for a dead-end as the police warned of a ``murderous'' new phase in republican terrorism following Thursday's bomb blast in west London, alleged to be part of the terrorists' ``worrying new agenda'' to wreck the Good Friday Agreement.

Both Unionists and Nationalists were reported to be having second thoughts over the joint British-Irish peace package in the light of the new terrorist offensive and it seemed unlikely that they would be able to meet the August 6 deadline for a decision. Despite attempts to put on a brave face, it was clear that the Real IRA, believed to be behind the explosion, had succeeded in slowing down the momentum towards an early solution. The two sides admitted that it had made their task more difficult and that hardliners were back on top again. ``It won't wreck the peace process as the Real IRA want but it will make a difficult job even more difficult,'' republicans told The Guardian.

Analysts said what the bomb had done was to blow a hole through the three most crucial elements of the peace package: decommissioning by IRA, police reforms and scaling down security in Northern Ireland. Until the bomb happened, there was considerable optimism over a breakthrough with the IRA expected to make a ``gesture'' on decommissioning in exchange for more explicit assurances on policing and security. But Thursday's blast has dramatically changed the situation and signals from the Sinn Fein/IRA camp today suggested a rethink. Their view seemed to be that decommissioning at this stage would be exploited by the Real IRA in its propaganda war against the IRA whom it portrays as a ``traitor'' to the Republican cause by signing the Good Friday Agreement.

With decommissioning clearly on hold, the package was seen to be in deep freeze as the Unionists have made it clear that the peace process cannot move forward so long as the IRA continues to hold on to it weapons. On policing and demilitarisation too, the Unionists' attitude hardened and the Ulster Unionist Party's chief negotiator, Sir Reg Empey denounced the proposals for police reforms as ``an absolute nonsense''. Unionists believed that any move that might weaken security at a time when police were warning of a new climate of violence was fraught with risk. They strongly opposed the proposal, contained in the peace package, to bring down military installations as demanded by the republicans. Independent observers echoed the view that any significant change in security profile at this stage would make the province more vulnerable to terrorism.

``If the Government's proposals (for scaling down security) were implemented, the British army would be dramatically circumscribed in its ability to monitor and interdict terrorist activity in the republican heartlands of South Armagh and Tyrone where the Real IRA has considerable and growing support,'' The Times said arguing that while compromises were necessary to secure peace, security itself should not be compromised.

Meanwhile, London was on full alert as police warned that there could be more terrorist attacks in the coming days. Heavy security marked the queen mother's 101st birthday celebrations and Londoners were told to be extremely vigilant.

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Section  : International
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