Will Iranian reformers fight back?

By Kesava Menon

MANAMA (BAHRAIN), AUG. 6. A meeting of Iran's Expediency Council will provide an assessment of how far the country's liberals are prepared to go in their drive for reform.

The meeting, to be held on the order of the country's Supreme Religious Leader, Ayatollah Syed Ali Khamenei, is being convened to resolve a dispute between the reformist-dominated Parliament and the conservative- controlled judiciary over appointments to yet another constitutional body, the Council of Guardians.

This dispute has caused a constitutional crisis and has led to the delay in the formal inauguration of the President, Mr. Hojatolesslam Syed Mohammed Khatami's second term in office. The meeting of the Expediency Council was scheduled to be held later on Monday.

In Iran's constitutional scheme, Parliament makes the laws but the Council of Guardians has over-riding authority to verify that the laws conform to the Constitution and its Islamic principles. Disputes between Parliament and the Guardians Council are referred to the Expediency Council.

It was in line with this scheme that Ayatollah Khamenei yesterday wrote to the head of the Expediency Council and former President, Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, asking him to convene the meeting. Mr. Rafsanjani, accordingly, called the meeting.

The dispute pertains to the appointment of two new members to the 12-member Guardians Council. Half the members of this Council are nominated by the Supreme Leader and the other six are selected by Parliament from a list sent to them by the head of the judiciary.

Since the head of the judiciary is appointed by the Supreme Leader, these six members are also in a sense his nominees with the only distinction being that the names forwarded by the judiciary can be disapproved by Parliament.

Parliament has refused to approve two of the names sent by the judiciary on the grounds that the nominees are too political (read too committed to the conservative cause) and also inadequately qualified in terms of legal expertise.

Under the circumstances, a reference of the dispute to the Expediency Council is institutionally correct.

But the Expediency Council is also a body heavily tilted towards the conservatives. Although the President and others who have been elected by the people are members of the Expediency Council, the real power in this body vests in those who have been nominated to it directly by the Leader or are there by virtue of being nominated to other bodies. (For instance, the nominated members of the Guardians Council are also members of the Expediency Council).

Therefore, a reference of the dispute to the Expediency Council is not likely to lead to an outcome that would please the reformers.

The meeting, therefore, will prove a real test of the reformers' determination to stick to their principles. Behind the question of nominations the real issue is whether it is the elected representatives of the people or the officials nominated by the Leader who will call the shots in Iran in the future.

This is a test from which the reformers have backed off on every occasion when it came to the crunch during Mr. Khatami's first four-year term as President.

Having won every election since then, and consistently with over 70 per cent of the popular vote in their favour, Iran's reformist factions have reason to believe that they can press ahead to clinch the issue.

In a surprisingly bold talk after his election was endorsed by Ayatollah Khamenei, Mr. Khatami said the people's will should be the determining factor in the governance of Iran.

Now, it has to be seen how far Mr. Khatami and his supporters will press on with their defiance.

On the occasion when he handed over the decree endorsing Mr. Khatami's election, Ayatollah Khamenei had also issued a barely veiled threat that the endorsement would be valid only so long as Mr. Khatami did not deviate from Islamic principles. That is a catch-all qualification.

That Ayatollah Khamenei ordered postponement of the President's inauguration can be interpreted as a further warning.

If the Supreme Leader were to withdraw his endorsement of Mr. Khatami's election or indefinitely postpone his formal inauguration, Iran could well be faced with a political crisis.

During his first four-year term, Mr. Khatami had restrained his followers from pushing a confrontation with the conservatives to a point where it would precipitate a crisis. It will soon be known whether he has decided to change the rules of engagement.

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Section  : International
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