U.S. sanctions unlikely against China

By Sridhar Krishnaswami

WASHINGTON, AUG. 7. If the response of the U.S. State Department on Monday to reported Chinese transfers of missile components to Pakistan is anything to go by, it is clear the Bush administration is reluctant to impose sanctions against China.

``The laws involved have sanctions against entities that engage in certain transfers. That is certainly not our preferred course, although we would certainly follow U.S. law if it came to that,'' the State Department spokesman, Mr. Richard Boucher, said.

The Bush administration says it would like to see China implement a November 2000 pledge or agreement on the subject of missile exports. The United States recently said China's implementation of that accord was ``mixed''.

``... first and foremost what we want to see is (the) Chinese side abide by this agreement and implement their new system of controls effectively. They told us when we were in Beijing that they were serious about doing that, that they were engaged in the process of establishing a new system of export controls,'' Mr. Boucher said.

The State Department has also said there is no difference in the way the administration goes about making the ``determination'' on whether or not China or Chinese firms are involved in the sale of missile or missile components to third countries. ``The law is the law; we follow the law and that has not changed. So I don't think there's any difference in the way the process proceeds in that regard,'' the spokesman said.

``What we are trying to do here is to work with the Chinese to get full implementation of an agreement that would stop the Chinese; that the Chinese would stop sales and assistance to missile programmes... in other countries. That's an important policy goal; that's something that we think the Chinese have an interest in; it's something that we think we have an interest in. So the goal is to get a better, firmer, international regime that prevents missile transfers,'' Mr. Boucher said.

For an administration looking to put the relations with China back on track, it was hardly expected to lash out at Beijing for the reported missile component transfers to Pakistan. At the same time few here are under any illusion about China's reply. And this will not change Washington's attitude on proliferation concerns vis-a-vis China.

The bottom line is that there are no simple answers to what Washington can do on China's sale of missiles, missile components or technology to Pakistan, or for that matter any other country. There are no doubt domestic sanction laws for violating the Missile Technology Control Regime, but the process of setting in motion this is not only difficult but also has political and international implications.

Here the Bush administration finds itself in no better position than its predecessor which harped on the word ``determination'' before taking the sanctions route. The Clinton administration, despite being routinely challenged by its own intelligence agencies, did not make any final determination that Beijing was indeed involved in dubious missile technology transfers.

On China, the U.S. President, Mr. George W. Bush, is no different than Mr. Bill Clinton. The later had begun sounding tough on China, in fact even accusing Mr. George Bush Senior of being soft. Eventually Mr. Clinton had to come to grips with reality; and his critics accuse him of going overboard in the search for a strategic engagement with China.

Mr. Bush used all those tough sounding words and phrases, not just during the election campaign but in the first few months in office as well. And despite all the pressures coming from the right wing, he will not do anything that will hurt larger U.S. interests - strategic and economic.

`Baseless rumours'

PTI reports from Beijing:

China today rejected a Washington Times report that a state- controlled Chinese firm sent several consignments of missile components to Pakistan for its nuclear- capable missiles.

``This U.S. newspaper always spreads groundless rumours which are irresponsible and slander China of undertaking proliferation,'' the Foreign Ministry spokesman, Mr. Zhu Bangzao, said.

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