India-China talks on western sector soon

By Atul Aneja

NEW DELHI, AUG. 12. After recording their perceptions of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) along a 345 km. ``middle sector'' stretch, India and China are gearing up for a similar exercise along their frontier in the Ladakh area.

According to highly-placed sources in the Government, both sides have defined their individual perceptions of the LAC along their border in Uttar Pradesh and recorded it on maps. Sources said there was a convergence of views on the LAC alignment along large portions in this sector. Both sides, however, differ on the lay of LAC in some segments of the area. The middle sector includes the grazing grounds of Barahoti, which came into prominence before the 1962 Sino-Indian conflict.

It is likely that the differences between the two sides in the contours of the LAC in the western sector will be wider. For, unlike the middle sector, the post-1962 occupation in the western sector by China has been considerable. Most of these differences in the alignment of the LAC, however, are known to the two sides. As result, it may not be too difficult to record the divergent perceptions in the western sector on map. There are, however, some specific points in the area, where clarifications will be required.

The purpose of determining the LAC is to ensure the Sino-Indian border remains calm and commercial activity such as border trade can begin.

Political settlement?

The 4,060-km. border will ultimately have to be settled politically. China has already indicated the broad parameters of an overarching political settlement. Unlike the early 1980s, when it wanted India to relent in the western sector, Beijing now wants New Delhi to show flexibility in specific portions of the eastern sector. Sources said China was especially keen on persuading India to show some leeway in Tawang, Arunachal Pradesh. Chinese academics, while buttressing their case, have said Tibet had traditionally exercised administrative control, including collection of taxes over Tawang. Tawang, they say, is also an indispensable part of the Tibetan monastery network which converges in Lhasa.

China, recently, has not shown any excessive interest in permanently retaining its hold over the entire Aksai-Chin area, a key link between the provinces of Tibet and Xinjiang.

According to sources, the visit of the Chinese Prime Minister, Mr. Zhu Rongji, in November could see Beijing launch a new political initiative to help ease tensions along the Sino- Indian border.

The assessment here is that the Chinese political will to settle the boundary dispute has not been blunted by the Pokhran nuclear tests. China, however, appears to have added some sense of urgency in competing with India for geopolitical space in parts of South and South-East Asia.

Denied an assured foothold in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, China appears to be expending considerable energy for influence in this area, the sources say. Indian security planners, for instance, are carefully monitoring Chinese moves to develop the Pakistani port of Gwadar, at the junction of the Arabian Sea and the strategic Gulf of Oman. Recently, China said it was ready to undertake a detailed technical assessment to develop the deep sea port of Gwadar.

The Indian side is looking at the possibility of a road link-up between Gwadar and the Chinese mainland via the Indus highway. In case this happens, it will theoretically give China a strategic reach into the Arabian Sea. Press reports from Pakistan suggest China is also looking at Gwadar as a stopover for refuelling its ships.

Reach to Bay of Bengal

In the east too, Chinese efforts to acquire an influence in the Bay of Bengal have come in for detailed scrutiny.

China's moves towards the south have been mainly generated by its great western development plan. Launched in January, 2000 it envisages the development of its six poorest provinces, including Yunnan. With Yunnan's capital Kunming as the focus, China is building cross-border roads, river ports and airports in all directions.

In doing so, Beijing is reaching out to the Bay of Bengal. China's outreach to the Bay of Bengal is through Myanmar, bordering India. It is reviving some World War-II roads, such as the link between Lashio in Myanmar with Kunming.

Besides, China is seeking transit access along the Irrawady river which, after splitting Myanmar into nearly two equal halves, empties into the Bay of Bengal. China, apparently, hopes to develop this route to reduce the dependence on the shipping lanes in the South China Sea.

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