Mood grim in Skopje despite pact

By Batuk Gathani

BRUSSELS, AUG. 14. Late last night, after much plodding and persuasion, the European Union and NATO officials structured a deal to avert a civil war in Macedonia between the rival ethnic factions.

The Macedonian government and the ethnic Albanian leaders signed a wide ranging agreement to avert a civil war by granting more rights to the ethnic Albanian Muslim minority which constitutes about a quarter of Macedonia's two million plus population. The agreement proposes to give ethnic Albanians in Macedonia a greater share of power, which ranges from police ranks to Parliament, language and education.

Western officials stipulated that only after ``a series of conditions'' are met would the proposed 3500 more foreign troops under NATO's command enter Macedonia. NATO insists on an ``enduring ceasefire respected by all parties'' before its troops can begin the task of implementing the latest agreement which may lead to granting amnesty to the rebels and also disarming

them. The E.U. and NATO officials have stated that the peace accord should be approved by the Macedonian Parliament. The Macedonians nationalists have vowed to reject the plan.

Though western officials insist on a ``quick implementation'' so that the allied peace force can be deployed, according to observers all this could take many days or weeks. NATO officials are also wary of the mission on this account.

Technically, the allied troops are ready and could be deployed within two days of a final decision to deploy them. Currently, there are 4000 NATO troops in Macedonia who provide back-up for some 40,000 soldiers in the neighbouring Kosovo.

Senior NATO officials and `ambassadors' of the 19 NATO member- countries will meet at NATO headquarters here on Thursday to discuss the strategy. The venture is ``fraught with uncertainty and carries an element of risk'' according to a western observer. There is much speculation about the real intentions and peaceful bonafides of the Albanians. The response of Albanian guerillas is also not known. At their Thursday meeting, NATO Ambassadors will first discuss whether conditions are right for deployment of new troops. It also remains to be seen how the Macedonian population accepts the peace accord. For example, many Macedonians feel that NATO is more favourably disposed towards ethnic Albanians who are seen ``being rewarded for their aggression''.

Later this week, NATO may decide first to dispatch an initial probing mission of some 15 to 20 officials of so-called ``implementation group'' to make an ``on spot'' assessment of logistical and psychological imponderables. The bottomline is to first decide how the vast majority of the Macedonian population responds to NATO initiative.

According to a senior official, NATO is going in Macedonia with a specific mandate ``to collect those weapons'' and ``when that is done, we will be out from there''.

In the background of current ethnic tension and deep distrust between local Christians and Muslims, this may sound a bit simplistic. The ground reality is that the previous cease fire agreement has been ignored by all concerned and hence it is argued that the current accord may not also end the ethnic war. Obviously, there are reservations about peace prospects and some observers fear that the simmering conflict could even escalate into the fifth Balkan war of the past decade.

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Section  : International
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