Arafat's move a tactical folly?

By Kesava Menon

MANAMA (BAHRAIN), AUG. 16. The Palestinian Authority President, Mr. Yasser Arafat, has often been accused of lacking strategic vision. What he is, however, putting on display right now is a lack of tactical imagination. His people are facing one of the most dire crises in their history, being on the verge of losing what little they have gained after over 50 years of struggle and what does Mr. Arafat do? He calls for an urgent meeting of Arab Foreign Ministers when the outcome of the meeting and its total futility are abundantly clear.

Mr. Arafat has been trying to set up a summit of the Arab leaders. Egypt's President, Mr. Hosni Mubarak, whose assent is key for holding any such summit, has dismissed the suggestion out of hand while giving the impression that he thought the idea absurd. The Palestinian leader perhaps views the Foreign Ministers meeting as some sort of a substitute. It is quite likely that the Arab Foreign Ministers will meet since two successive demands by the Palestinian leader cannot be dismissed without his losing face. But other than a statement condemnatory of Israel and a plea for greater international involvement in the settlement of the Israel-Palestinian dispute and a specific demand for the posting of international observers, the meeting will produce nothing.

So far, the international community, including the U.S. but excluding Israel, has been convinced of the need for the deployment of third party observers who will monitor whether both sides will observe a cease-fire that they have so far observed more in the breach. As, and if, they settle into their task, these observers could begin to provide the world with more acceptably neutral assessments of which side is provoking the other.

The Palestinians desire that this observer force should be an international one with representatives of the European Union and Russia included in it. But there seems little chance that the E.U. and Russia will try and force the U.S. into an agreement that the observer group include more than the CIA officials that the U.S. is willing to deploy at the most.

If the E.U. and Russia cannot persuade the U.S. to do more than send additional CIA officials to the area, and to do so only when there is relative quiet, there is little chance that the Arab Foreign Ministers can do so either. Even the efforts at persuasion by Saudi Arabiahas not been able to budge the U.S. beyond a point. But what tactical advantage can the Palestinians hope to gain by the deployment of third party observers even if they are of doubtful neutrality.

Their main objective is to put forward the case that they, and not Israel, are the real victims in the situation. Over time even such observers might come to note that Israel's policy of maintaining Jewish settlements and the heavy-handed measures that they use for the settlers protection and the behaviour of the settlers is the root cause of the current turmoil. If they can make some advance towards getting their case accepted internationally, especially to the point where the U.S. administration cannot continue to blithely ignore it, the Palestinians would win a significant objective. Continued violence and/or a statement from the Arab Foreign Ministers are not the means that will persuade the U.S. to deploy an observer group that might possibly come to such a conclusion.

The Palestinians do have a point when they say that they cannot stop all violence from their side when Israel has blocked off all access to Palestinian towns and villages. Their security forces cannot travel between the towns and villages in an effort to round up the militants. But it is within their means to show by statements, and what action can be taken, that they are serious in their efforts to curb militancy.

This has nothing to do with the belief amongst the Palestinians, and within the Arab world, that their acts of violence are justified when they are confronting a brutal occupying force. But it has everything to do with adopting tactics that are likely to be more fruitful than the pointless machismo they currently exhibit.

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Section  : International
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