NATO weighs its options in Macedonia

By Batuk Gathani

BRUSSELS, AUG. 19. A small contingent of NATO troops arrived in Macedonia over the weekend, ostensibly on a ``surveillance mission'' to assess the prospects of further deployment of troops to disarm ethnic Albanian rebels. There is some confusion about the final deployment of the proposed 3,500 NATO troops in the region.

NATO officials and 19 ambassadors of the member states will take a final decision later this week about various policy and military options, after studying the report by NATO's Supreme Commander, General Joseph Ralston, who travels to Macedonia on Monday.

Doubts have been cast about the ``stability'' of the Macedonian ceasefire as some commentators feel that NATO troops could be walking into a trap. Western diplomats in the region also feel that the troops are unlikely to ``emerge unscathed'' within 30 days as planned by NATO leaders.

The current NATO mission is to first disarm ethnic Albanians on a ``voluntary basis''. Some observers suspect that the Albanians would make some ``token gestures'' but the bulk of their arms would remain hidden. For example, the Albanians are talking about handing over 2,500 weapons while Macedonians are demanding 6,000. It is an open secret that the bulk of the sophisticated Albanian weaponry is hidden in secret mountain caches.

In northern Macedonia where ethnic Albanians are in a majority, there are reports of sporadic clashes and Macedonian fighter jets are flying reconnaissance missions over the rebel- controlled Tetove region.

Key NATO members such as Germany face serious political problems in winning parliamentary approval for their participation in the NATO force. Germany has pledged only 500 troops and but parliamentarians from the ruling Social Democrats and the Green coalition have expressed their opposition to the move.

Senior NATO officials led by General Ralston arrive in Macedonia on Monday to make an ``on-the-spot assessment'' of the logistical and military risks on the ground. Based on his assessment and submission, the NATO Governments will take a decision about deployment of more troops in the region.

This is a very delicate mission since the troops are under orders not to fire in any encounter with the rebels. The first batch of NATO personnel will also assess the ``durability'' of peace. Much about the peace prospects depends on the attitudes of the Albanians and Macedonians, whose deep hatred for each other is the cause of the current hostilities in the region. The bottomline is that NATO troops do not wish to get caught in the crossfire in the wake of the resumption of hostilities.

There is total lack of trust between the two ethnic communities as both believe that the other side is hiding caches of weapons to use in any future clash. The first batch of NATO troops will liaison with leaders of the ethnic communities and the Macedonian Government to determine whether it is safe to deploy the rest of the troops.

Observers foresee serious disagreements over the quantity of arms and also the agreed political agenda. The more nationalist-minded parliamentarians have vowed to ensure that there is no parliamentary approval for the proposed reforms. Extremist factions in the so-called Albanian National Liberation Army would prefer to continue the hostilities until a ``Greater Albania'' is created from parts of Macedonian territory.

The current quandary in which senior NATO commanders find themselves in has its roots in the military alliance's ``lapsed deadlines'' in the Balkans, on the eve of its sixth intervention in the region since hostilities broke out there a decade ago.

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Section  : International
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