``Change or die'' warning to Tories

By Hasan Suroor

LONDON, AUG. 20. The Tory leadership contest entered the final phase today amid a grim warning that the party could be written off altogether at the next general election if it does not modernise itself, but with the odds in the leadership race continuing to favour the status quoist, Mr. Ian Duncan Smith, few Tories appeared too much bothered about the future.

The warning by the shadow foreign secretary, Mr. Francis Maude, came as the grassroots support for Mr. Kenneth Clarke contesting on a `modernising' agenda dipped because of his strong pro-euro views which are in conflict with the party's official europhobic line.

Though several eurosceptics, styling themselves as ``Eurosceptics for Ken, have declared their backing for him, the bulk of over 300,000 ordinary members - mostly geriatrics from the old world - is rooting for Mr. Duncan Smith; and it is they who hold the key to the outcome.

Despite acknowledging that obsession with Europe and `saving' the pound cost the party dearly at the last election, the ageing Tory rank-and-file cannot bring itself to set the issue aside and finds it hard to accept Mr. Clarke who is so unapologetically willing to let the pound go.

They are also suspicious of anyone who, they fear, might take the party away from its traditionally insular policies; and Mr. Clarke's agenda of social liberalism is simply not their cup of tea.

Mr. Maude, who was the manager for Mr. Michael Portillo's shortlived campaign, said the party was fighting for `survival' and unless it accepted radical reforms to make it more acceptable to the people it might be overtaken by Liberal Democrats as the main Opposition party. ''If we do not change ourselves and make ourselves appealing to a much wider group of people, rather than arguing about things which are of interest primarily to ourselves, we will fail and we will run the risk after the next election of becoming the third party,`` he warned in a BBC radio interview. He added that the party must embrace serious change if it was ''actually to survive, let alone have a chance of winning``.

Analysts called it the most stark warning of the campaign from a senior party figure and Tory sympathisers were dismayed by the continuing war of words between Mr. Clarke and Mr. Duncan Smith on Europe almost to the exclusion of other issues.

The launch of their `manifestoes' today was overshadowed by recrimination over Europe with Mr. Clarke accusing his rival of having `extreme' views on Europe and favouring Britain's withdrawal from E.U. altogether. This drew a sharp retort from the Duncan Smith camp which dismissed Mr. Clarke's remarks as ''complete rubbish``.

Europe has become such a divisive issue within the party that it keeps popping up even when the two candidates try to raise other matters. Mr. Clarke today called for improving the public services, while Mr. Duncan Smith rode the Tory hobby horse of tax cuts, tough policing and more discipline in schools.

The two former prime ministers - Lady Thatcher and Mr. John Major - and the outgoing Tory chief, Mr. William Hague, have declared their support for Mr. Duncan Smith as they believe he is the best bet to heal the divisions in the party. Mr. Clarke's pro-Europe views, on the other hand, are seen as a prescription for more blood-letting on the issue.

The result would be announced on September 12.

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