China non-committal on missiles

By Sridhar Krishnaswami

WASHINGTON, AUG. 24. A high level U.S. delegation to China is apparently returning home without making sufficient progress on a clear pledge by Beijing to abide by the November 2000 Pledge on limiting exports of missile technology.

The Bush administration is increasingly concerned that China is not living up to the accord after intelligence reports surfaced here that missile component shipments had been made to Pakistan. The denials of both Islamabad and Beijing have not been taken seriously here.

The U.S. delegation, according to the State Department, was prepared to spend one more day in China if progress could be made. That did not take place and the members decided to return. The talks were described as candid and detailed. ``We'll need to do additional work to clarify China's willingness to implement fully the terms of the November missile agreement'', the deputy spokesman of the State Department, Mr. Philip Reeker, said.

Very frequently during the years of the Clinton administration, reports used to surface of China's shipments of missiles and missile technology to countries such as Pakistan and Iran, the former especially. Reluctant to go the sanctions route but under tremendous pressure from Congress, the Clinton administration finally worked out a ``Pledge''. Among other things, Washington waived sanctions that were required by domestic laws in return for Beijing refraining from enhancing third countries' missile capabilities.

The Bush administration is once again coming under pressure from Capitol Hill to get down to serious business with China on the issue of missile and missile technology exports. Law makers are saying that there are clear anti-proliferation laws which would have to be slapped against China for specific violations. The question now is if the Bush administration may actually not want to look the other way.

The impression is that the Republican administration, even while maintaining a tough anti-China line on the outside, is willing to talk to Beijing with a view to keeping relations moving. After a rough patch of about three months in the bilateral relationship, the United States and China are working to put things back on track and paving the way for a successful visit this October of the President, Mr. George W. Bush, to Shanghai and Beijing.

But on the subject of shipment of missiles, components and technology by China to Pakistan or any third country, at least four things would have to be kept in mind. In the first place, none of these ``revelations'' are anything new. In fact, what will be news is if the intelligence community were to say that China has stopped shipments to third countries.

Second, despite all denials, it is a well known fact that China keeps sending these shipments, at times trying to get away with the argument that it will look into the activities of a non-state run company.

Third, again in spite of the denials, Beijing has in the past made the linkage between arms shipments of the U.S. to Taiwan and its own activities with third countries such as Pakistan and Iran. The onus, in the view of China, will actually be on the U.S. if some kind of reciprocity is the name of the game.

And fourthly, talking tough against China is actually easier than taking tough and substantive decisions against it. Mr. Bush, or for that matter his predecessor, Mr. Bill Clinton, found that it was easier to say things during the course of a campaign trail. Mr. Clinton did not want to rock the boat vis-a-vis American investments and opportunities in China. And Mr. Bush is unlikely to be any different.

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Section  : International
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