Prospect of early election in Sri Lanka

By Nirupama Subramanian

COLOMBO, AUG. 26. Sri Lanka faces the prospect of another general election unless the minority People's Alliance (PA) Government, which is under an Opposition siege, can strike a power-sharing deal with its arch- opponent, the United National Party (UNP), or put together other support to remain in power.

The Government faces a no-confidence motion when Parliament reconvenes on September 7. It was to avoid this motion that the President, Ms. Chandrika Kumaratunga, prorogued the House on July 10. Now time is running out for the PA.

The party concluded one round of talks with the UNP on Saturday, and is scheduled to continue the discussions on Monday and Tuesday for what it has described as a ``constructive agreement'' on governance with the main Opposition.

But the UNP's terms for this are such as to make an agreement virtually impossible. The party basically wants the President, Ms. Chandrika Kumaratunga, to transfer her executive powers to a Cabinet which will be led by a UNP Prime Minister, and in which all the key portfolios will be held by the UNP. No one expects the talks to be successful, least of all the UNP. Senior members of the party are pushing instead for Ms. Kumaratunga to reconvene the prorogued Parliament so that the PA Government is made to face the Opposition's no-confidence motion. In the event that the motion is successful, the UNP wants a caretaker government led by it and including all other parties that assisted in toppling the PA, to take charge for a period of about six weeks till the next elections can be declared.

Contrary to popular wisdom that neither the PA nor the UNP wants an election now, those within the UNP pushing for the no- confidence motion are confident that if elections are called, the party has a good chance of victory. ``The UNP is not scared of an election. We want one,'' said a prominent parliamentarian.

Kumaratunga's options

What are Ms. Kumaratunga's options? In case the talks with the UNP are inconclusive, the PA Government can strike a deal with the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). She held another round of discussions with the JVP on Saturday on the party's offer of conditional support to her Government, but there are indications that she does not consider this option viable.

Rather, Ms. Kumaratunga has tried to use the prospect of a PA-JVP card mainly to scare factions within the UNP representing big business into striking a deal with her Government, so far without success. The JVP has given the President time till August 31 to decide whether she wants to take up its offer of conditional support to her Government.

The only other alternative that Ms. Kumaratunga appears to have at the moment to avoid the Opposition's no-confidence motion is to prorogue Parliament again when it reconvenes.

Prorogation is constitutionally permissible only for a maximum of two months, and while Parliament has to be reconvened on September 7, Ms. Kumaratunga can prorogue it once again for further two months. That will take Sri Lanka past October, enabling Ms. Kumaratunga to ward off a test of strength in Parliament till she can call fresh elections. Under the 1978 Constitution, Parliament cannot be dissolved at least for a year after its formation. The last general election was on October 10, 2000.

But even another election may not be able to resolve the political uncertainty that has prevailed since the last parliamentary election, and came to a head with the walk-out of the Government by the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress in June. If anything, the configuration of political parties after another election is only likely to be more vexing than the last time.

Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Section  : International
Previous : Interim Govt.'s actions come under a cloud
Next     : Musharraf trying to split party, says PPP