U.S. flexible on Chinese missile build-up?

By Sridhar Krishnaswami

WASHINGTON, SEPT. 2. In what could be a significant change in policy, the Bush administration is apparently willing to be flexible with China on missile buildup and, perhaps may even not object to Beijing resuming underground nuclear tests if they are needed to assure the safety and reliability of the arsenals, says a report in the New York Times.

The aim is to get China's acceptance of the missile defence plan of the Republican administration and in the process convince China that the United States threat perception is only from the so-called ``rogue states''. If the Bush administration drops objections to China's missile buildup and gives the nod for new underground tests, it would hit at the heart of right-wing objections against China.

The issue is treated somewhat differently by two other national papers, The Washington Post and The Los Angeles Times - all three papers basing much of their reports on an interview with Dr. Condoleezza Rice on Saturday. The Post says Washington planned to offer Beijing an advance look at test plans for the missile shield by way of placating the Chinese. ``We want to engage China on issues regarding missile defence, and we really haven't,'' Dr. Rice said.

The Los Angeles Times said Dr. Rice specifically denied a report in The New York Times that the Bush administration would get China on board the missile defence plan by dropping objections to the modernisation and expansion of the Chinese arsenal. ``That is simply not going to happen. We will tell them that a further nuclear build-up isn't good for peace and stability in the region,'' Dr. Rice was quoted as saying.

On Saturday, the U.S. slapped Class 2 sanctions under the Missile technology Control Regime (MTCR) against China and Pakistan for shipment of missile components from a Chinese entity to Pakistan; and while no linkage can be seen between this action and the administration's moves on missile defence vis-a-vis China, the impression is that the Bush administration is keen on getting Chinese approval for its missile defence plan.

Just how senior officials will finetune their statements on a so- called change in the administration line remains to be seen. On the one hand, Dr. Rice said Washington would not agree to any modernisation of the Chinese nuclear arsenal. However, it is being said she and other administration officials have not said the U.S. would strenuously object to such a buildup.

There are at least two elements to this thinking in the Bush administration. First, a realisation that unlike Russia, the U.S. has not started an extensive, indepth dialogue with China on missile defence. With this comes the perception that if the Chinese were talked to at some length, much of their objections can be overcome.

Second, it has to do with the U.S. President, Mr. George W. Bush's visit to China next month and in putting in place a plan that could be pursued with some seriousness in talks with the top Chinese leadership. Beijing has vociferously objected to the missile defence plans saying proceeding with the anti-missile shield will violate the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.

The so-called new approach on missile defence vis-a- vis China has riled the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Mr. Joseph Biden, who is looking at the implications of the policy and in the reaction of a country such as India.

``This is absolutely absurd. It shows these guys will go to any length to build a national missile defence, even one they can't define. Their headlong, headstrong, irrational and theological desire to build a missile defence sends a wrong message to the Chinese and to the whole world,'' Mr. Biden was quoted as saying in The New York Times going on to especially make a reference to India which would try to balance any buildup by China. ``This is taking 50 years of trying to control nuclear weapons and standing it on its head.''

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