Fiji polls: Path not yet clear for Chaudhry

By Amit Baruah

SUVA, SEPT. 3. It has been a quiet election so far. Counting of ballot papers in Fiji's second election in two years, and a little over a year after the kidnapping of a Prime Minister, is slow.

At the Suva Grammar School, which overlooks the Pacific Ocean, there's almost a festival-like atmosphere. Parties have put up sheds outside the counting centre where the fate of 28 of a total of 71 constituencies will be decided.

Food stalls did brisk business this morning as party supporters sat in their sheds, waiting patiently for the process of sorting, and then finally, counting to begin.

There was no open rivalry, it's all very civilised and dignified. Even a university election in India could seemingly create more problems. And, by Indian standards, the Outer Delhi constituency, has many, many more times the total electorate of Fiji - 451,000.

For all the festive atmosphere, the elections here are serious. And, beneath the civilised polling process, which got its stamp of approval from the Commonwealth observer mission and United Nations representatives today, there are real questions, issues and latent inter-community tensions.

The big question is whether the authorities will respect the people's verdict if the Indian-dominated Fiji Labour Party (FLP) of the deposed Prime Minister, Mr. Mahendra Chaudhry, gains a majority or is in striking distance of taking power? No one is sure.

The Fiji Times, has been stressing one point - that the poll results be respected. And, by doing so, it has authenticated doubts being expressed gently; that Mr. Chaudhry's path to power may not be smooth. In case the FLP, which had 37 seats in the May 1999 elections, and which is again expected to do well, crosses the 36-seat mark, keeping it away from power might prove a tall order.

But, in case it is unable to get a clear majority in Fiji's preferential vote system, the President, Ratu Josefa Iloilo, will have a lot of space to operate with. He might just call upon a Fijian leader to form a Government.

That the FLP is aware of such a prospect is clear. ``There will certainly be hurdles (in forming a Government). The right-wing, reactionary forces will try to prevent us from taking power. We don't expect plainsailing,'' Dr. Ganesh Chand, FLP ideologue and former Planning Minister, said. However, Dr. Chand is ``very confident'' that the Labour Party, which has run an organised, issue-based campaign, will be able to form the Government once again.

Other analysts, too, say there are ``problems'' ahead as the election results begin trickling in. There are even suggestions that Mr. Chaudhry step back, and allow someone else from his party, an ethnic Fijian, to become Prime Minister.

So far, the international election observers have been pleased at the way things have gone. ``We are pleased that the voting took place in such a calm and professional atmosphere. We are impressed with the professionalism and dedication of the election officials, especially the polling station staff,'' the Commonwealth Observer Group Chairman, Sir Henry Forde, said today. ``So far the process has been credible, but it is not over yet. Now our attention will turn to the counting press.'' The United Nations Fijian Electoral Observation Mission (UNFEOM) said its observers from 18 countries had visited some 95 per cent the 818 polling stations. ``To date, the Mission has observed no problems significant enough to compromise the overall integrity of the voting process,'' it said in a statement.

``As it now turns its attention to the task of observing the counting process, the U.N. Mission expresses appreciation for the cooperation it has received from the people of Fiji and their officials.''

``The United Nations mission looks forward to the realisation of Fiji's national determination to return to democratic rule,'' it added hinting that the polling process may have been the easy part of the election.

In the next couple of days, a clear picture of the winners and losers will be known. Until then, most people will continue to speculate about what kind of Government will rule for them.

One thing is clear - no one here wants a repeat of May 2000 - when Fiji's lawfully-elected Prime Minister was taken hostage for 56 days and shown the door.

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