Strategic studies

STABILITY IN SOUTH ASIA Prospects of Indo-Pak. Nuclear Conflict: Ashley J. Tellis; Nataraj Publishers, 17, Rajpur Road, Dehra Dun- 248006. Rs. 250.

THE RESEARCH findings reported in this 123-page monograph, sponsored by the U.S. Army's Deputy Chief of Staff, Intelligence, was conducted in the Strategy and Doctrine programme of RAND's Arroyo Centre, a federally funded research and development centre sponsored by the United States Army. The findings should be of interest to regional military and intelligent analysts, the counter proliferation community and scholars in South Asian studies.

It is not uncommon, that militarily strong Super Powers, often undertake and estimate the defence capabilities of their allies as well as enemies. Our ancient classics like the "Arthasasthra'' and "Manusmriti'', while describing the "Rajamandala" discuss the need for assessing the defence potentials of the enemy as well as allies, through a well established system of spies (espionage). Today the Super Powers spend huge amounts to take stock of the relative military capabilities of nations, coming under their sphere of influence. The Pentagon knows more about India's military might, through its Central Intelligence Department.

This RAND research project states "the South Asian region is generally perceived to be a volatile area of the world. Its two principal states, India and Pakistan, have a record of mutual animosity dating back to their Independence in 1947. They have fought a few major wars since then, and they came close to war in 1987 in 1990 and again in 1999. India and Pakistan are currently engaged in a low intensity conflict waged by proxy over the disputed state of Kashmir. Both countries have active nuclear weapons programmes under way and both are energetically engaged in acquiring the means to deliver these weapons. Consequently, several observers in the United States and abroad, including successive Directors of Central Intelligence, have argued that the South Asian Region represents the most probable international arena where deterrence breakdown might lead to nuclear use.

The study also found that India and Pakistan both assume that outside powers, mainly the United States will intervene to stop any major war on the sub-continent within two weeks after it begins.

Should one of them launch a war on the basis of that assumption only to discover that it is incorrect, misperceptions of the U.S. policy will have contributed to instability and raised the possibility of nuclear use as the war proceeds.

The study also observes "Nuclear use in South Asia would most likely involve counter-value targets because both Indian and Pakistani arsenals are small and are judged to contain relatively primitive weapons. Any use of these weapons on the large, heavily populated cities of the sub-continent would generate a need for demanding humanitarian operations, possibly involving the U.S. military forces.''

The book also states "Finally, more or less coinciding with the weakening of conventional capabilities and the nuclearisation of the sub-continent, there has been an increasing proclivity to pursue unconventional operations of limited aims. Pakistan supported the Sikh insurgency in India during the 1980s and shifted its support toward the Kashmiri insurgency from the late 1980s to the present day. India is suspected of having supported the past resistance in Sind and is sometimes accused of supporting the Mohajir Quami Movement (MQM) in Karachi, while Pakistan is accused of supporting minority unrest in various parts of India.''

It is an interesting study, useful both to policy-makers and researchers in defence studies, and South Asian diplomacy.

C. A. PERUMAL

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