Govt. debating pros and cons of engaging Benazir

By Atul Aneja

NEW DELHI, SEPT. 6. While continuing to engage the Pakistan President, General Pervez Musharraf, the Government has begun to debate possible long-term options for building a relationship with Islamabad.

The focus, as of now, is on the possible return of the former Pakistan Prime Minister, Ms. Benazir Bhutto, to mainstream politics in Pakistan and her participation in the elections there next year. Ms. Bhutto is expected here on a private visit for three days from October 21.

Highly-placed Government sources said considerable external pressure was being mounted on the Musharraf regime to accommodate the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) in the country's political discourse.

Ms. Bhutto has a good equation with powerful sections in Washington, but the real pressure on the Musharraf Government, it appears, is coming from the Arab countries. According to an assessment here, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has had a special relationship and influence on the Pakistani elite, is playing a leading role in the exercise. In fact, Ms. Bhutto is currently in Dubai and is expected to chair a key meeting of her party in the Emirate in the next few days.

Sources, however, caution that despite the international pressure, Ms. Bhutto's return to mainstream politics is not going to be easy. Aware of Ms. Bhutto's charisma, the military regime is likely to exert itself to considerable lengths to ensure that she does not return as Pakistan's Prime Minister, even if the PPP participates in the polls.

Gen. Musharraf's Government, it is felt, will exercise its considerable leverage vis-a-vis the Bhutto camp in the coming months to ensure that it does not get marginalised. Specifically, the corruption charges against the Bhutto family are likely to be used by the Government to arrive at a suitable understanding.

Ms. Bhutto too has some cards up her sleeve. For instance, despite its best efforts, the Musharraf Government is still looking for ways to increase its influence over the pan- Islamic Jamiat Ulema-I-Islam (JUI). The JUI, headed by Maulana Fazlur Rahman, on the contrary, has been close to Ms. Bhutto and the former Interior Minister, Mr. Nasrullah Babar. The JUI, which is close to Mullah Omar in Afghanistan, recently demonstrated its clout when it got nearly half-a-million members of the Deobandi school, across the globe, assembled for a conference at Taro Jaba near Peshawar. Ms.Bhutto's clout over the JUI, therefore, can become a major point of negotiation with the Musharraf Government, the sources observed.

While debating the possible re-emergence of Ms. Bhutto, the sources cautioned that it would be premature to presume that her comeback, if it materialises, would be beneficial for India. She, in fact, may not have the room for manoeuvring, unless the military, which has always been an independent power centre in Pakistan, falls in line.

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