Attack on Masood a ploy to divert global attention?

By Atul Aneja

NEW DELHI, SEPT. 12. In reconstructing the terrorist strikes in New York and Washington on Tuesday, the security establishment here is veering round to the view that the attack on the Afghan Commander, Mr. Ahmad Shah Massood, may have been carried out to divert international attention away from the larger plot.

Highly-placed Government sources said commander Massood may have survived the attack on his life. Authentic information about his whereabouts is hard to come by, though there are media reports that he may be in Tajikistan.

The assessment here is that given their sophistication, the attacks in the U.S. have indeed been masterminded by Osama bin Laden's Al Qida group. No one else, the sources say, has the ability to strike with such coordination, precision and hostility as this group.

There is anticipation here that India may not be immediately targeted by international terrorists, as it is behind the U.S., Israel and the U.K. on Al Qida's hit-list.

It is almost certain that the Taliban-held Afghanistan where Osama is apparently holed up will either be subjected to air strikes or cruise missile attacks from U.S. warships, possibly positioned in the Persian Gulf area. With thousands dead, the Bush administration is under tremendous internal pressure to demonstrate a more muscular profile. Already, there is considerable internal resentment about the earlier U.S. decision not to take coercive action against the perpetrators of the attack on the U.S. warship USS Cole in Yemen, by members of the Al Qida group.

In order to fine-tune its assessment, India is closely monitoring a scheduled meeting of the NATO today. A U.N. Security Council nod for the possible use of force may not be uppermost on the U.S. mind.

Already, the missile attacks on Kabul airport at around 2.30 a.m. today have raised eyebrows here. Sources point out that, as of now, it is not certain whether these attacks have been, as widely reported, carried out by Commander Massood's Northern Alliance. These doubts have surfaced as the Northern Alliance, despite earlier provocations, has not undertaken such a military action against the Taliban in Kabul in the last four years.

In case the U.S. takes recourse to air strikes, these attacks can be launched from Turkey or Saudi Arabia. Pakistan may also be pressurised to meet possible U.S. military demands, especially on account of its well-publicised proximity to Osama bin Laden in the past.

Sources clarified that the anticipated U.S. retaliation may not necessarily be confined to Afghanistan alone. The U.S. military establishment, they say, will be hunting for those who masterminded these attacks, who could also be residing in the distant corners of Iraq.

As the U.S. gets into the retaliatory mode, there are economic consequences which India has to anticipate, the sources say. Political instability across the globe, for instance, will push up oil prices above the $ 30 a barrel mark, affecting the Indian economy adversely.

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