Govt. discusses fallout of U.S. attacks on the region

By Atul Aneja

NEW DELHI, SEPT. 13. The Government is closely monitoring the signals coming from the U.S. administration to assess the fall- out of Tuesday's terrorist attacks in New York and Washington on countries in the region, including Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The repercussions of the attacks in the U.S. came up for discussion during the meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security, which met this afternoon. This meeting, among others, was attended by the Foreign Secretary, Ms. Chokila Iyer, and the Chief of Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal A.Y. Tipnis.

In assessing the situation in the region, influential sections within the Government are of the view that the fall-out of these events on Pakistan and Afghanistan will depend on, whether or not, these strikes are traced to the Saudi fugitive Osama bin Laden.

In case Osama bin Laden's hand is established, it will not only have serious implications on Afghanistan, where he is based, but it may also contribute in weakening Pakistan in the future.

The U.S., in case Osama bin Laden is implicated, is certain to mount pressure on Islamabad to clamp down on the latter's support base which exists both sides of the Afghan- Pakistan border, sources in the Government say. Specifically, the Taliban, which protects Osama bin Laden, traces its roots in Pakistan. It is widely known that the Taliban has been promoted by Maulana Fazlur Rahman's Jamiat-e-Ulema-i-Islam (JUI), with the backing of the former Pakistan Prime Minister, Ms. Benazir Bhutto, and her Interior Minister, General Naseerullah Babar.

Sources, however, point out that Pakistan's decision to endorse a crackdown on the JUI is likely to boomerang. A clampdown, for instance, will inflame passions among the well- armed cadres supporting the JUI which straddle the porous border of Afghanistan and Pakistan. The JUI, which is close to the Taliban leader, Mullah Omar, demonstrated its clout by drawing nearly half-a-million members of the Deobandi school of Islam, to which it belongs, for a conference in Taro Jaba near Peshawar recently.

In other words, Pakistan may be risking the possibility of unbridled civil strife in case it launches a crackdown on the JUI. The U.S. pressures on Islamabad are also likely to severely strain the Pakistani military establishment, which has been exposed to extremist Islamic trends for quite some time now.

On the contrary, in case Pakistan defies the U.S. or complies with it only partially, it will risk the fury of the latter's military force. Sources point out that there is little ``middle ground'' in the situation in which Pakistan finds itself now. Reports from Washington suggest that the Bush administration wants Pakistan to quickly make up its mind on which side of the fence does it really belong.

Osama bin Laden's involvement in the attacks will certainly bring the Taliban regime in Afghanistan to the firing line. The U.S. show of strength against the Taliban, sources say, is likely to enhance the importance of the Northern Alliance under the leadership of Commander Ahmad Shah Masood, in a possible new, but more representative political arrangement in Afghanistan in the future.

The U.S. involvement in the region, is also likely to have a fall-out on Kashmir. The opinion is divided, but there is an influential section in the Government, which believes that the pre-occupation of the Jehadis with the U.S. may help lower the temperature in Jammu and Kashmir.

On the diplomatic side, the dominant view in South Block, after the attacks, is to make a concerted effort to raise India's profile in a global campaign against international terrorism. Active identification with the U.S. administration's counter- terrorism drive may prove helpful, it is felt. Sources point out that India is keen to contribute in finding solutions to issues of global concern such as international terrorism and democracy. Such a contribution, many is South Block opine, will help in raising India's international stature considerably.

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