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Friday, September 14, 2001

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Strategic moves to fight terror

INDIA'S GENUINE EMPATHY for the United States in its long hours of agony, wrought by the latest terrorist strikes against New York and Washington, can enhance the tone and quality of the intensifying relationship between the two countries. As pluralist societies, India and the U.S. share profound democratic values. The expanding bilateral linkages have not so far acquired the dimension of any definitive strategic bond. Yet these ties are no less strengthened by the substantive and sustainable inputs of many Indo-Americans and non-resident Indians in American society. It is also feared that the victims of Tuesday's carnage in New York may include people with such Indian connections. These aspects underpin New Delhi's expectations that Washington will in its present state of mind recognise India as a kindred soul. Undeniably, New Delhi hopes that a badly shaken Bush administration will count upon India as a proactive ally if an international coalition against terrorism can be formed. The reasoning has to do with India's long exposure to many forms of terroristic violence, including those inspired by or on behalf of Pakistan in its strategic gamesmanship. It is therefore that the Prime Minister, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee, has assured the U.S. of India's readiness to help advance the ongoing investigation of an obvious anti-America terror campaign. Yet, if the Vajpayee administration still finds itself somewhat on the margins of a new American thrust against international terror, Pakistan seems to be getting its act together after having made some unconvincing moves to woo a grief-stricken America.

The centrality of Pakistan to Washington's plans for a comprehensive war against international terrorism cannot be exaggerated. Even as the U.S. investigators have zeroed in on the Taliban-hosted Osama bin Laden as the chief suspect, the Bush administration has lost no time to engage Pakistan, an old U.S. ally. Washington's aim is to persuade or coerce Islamabad to cooperate in the investigation of and in a possible retaliation against the Saudi fugitive who is also the Taliban's ``guest'' in Afghanistan. In focus at this time is Pakistan's perceived capability to extend intelligence and logistical support to Washington as it seeks to track down Osama bin Laden and obliterate his suspected anti-U.S. terror network. Now, Pakistan's patronage of the Taliban in neighbouring Afghanistan is viewed by the international community as a strategic ground reality. Not surprisingly, therefore, Pakistan's President and Chief Executive, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, is reported to have agreed to assist Washington. Surely, it is unclear how he might be able to do so without triggering a fundamentalist backlash at home. The Vajpayee administration must not make the mistake of reckoning that its credible attempt to join a U.S. crusade against international terrorism may actually justify any move by India to turn cool towards Pakistan at this juncture. Given some signs of New Delhi's hesitation to re-engage Gen. Musharraf now, it needs to be underlined that India simply cannot afford to eschew the well-conceived efforts to build bridges with Islamabad for mutual benefit.

The impact of America's new mood on West Asia has been of a different salience. The U.S. has made no secret of its desire to bring under its anti-terror umbrella some ``responsible'' Arab- Muslim states. However, the Arab-Muslim spectrum, sensitive to the U.S.-Israel warmth and the U.S.-Iran ties, has not witnessed any strategic jockeyings similar to those that seem to have varyingly characterised the separate moves by New Delhi and Islamabad to woo a traumatised Washington. Any new strategic equations between West Asia and Washington might only be determined by the latter's ongoing assessment of the role of groups like the Hamas and others in the latest terrorist outrage against America. Washington may then comb the region to make new friends and influence the old ones if possible.

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