A new chance for two neighbours

By Husain Haqqani

PAKISTAN'S LEVEL of commitment to the anti-terrorist coalition currently being put together by the United States could have profound implications for India-Pakistan relations. In recent months, there has been a perceptible U.S. tilt in favour of India. Indian leaders have also continued to engage the rest of the world on a bilateral basis. Resolution of the Kashmir dispute, the raison d'etre of Pakistan's policy of tolerating Taliban and Jehadi extremism, would suffer a serious setback if India is seen resolutely in the U.S. corner while Pakistan wavers. The terrorist attacks inside the U.S. provide an occasion for Pakistan to reflect on its long- term interests and to rebuild relations with both the U.S. and India.

With India and Pakistan on the same side, against terrorism, this is a historic opportunity to set aside prejudices of the past. Instead of seeking support from external powers in fighting each other, India and Pakistan could work together alongside the U.S. The matter of Jammu and Kashmir, the core issue from Pakistan's perspective, could also be reasonably addressed. A similar opportunity arose in 1979, after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. The Janata Government made half-hearted moves to seek a rapprochement with Pakistan. But then Cold War mindsets came into play. India ended up backing the Afghan communist regime. Pakistan emerged as a frontline state in the U.S.-led battle against communism. General Zia- ul-Haq manipulated the entire situation to ensure the longevity of his own regime. In doing so, he ignored important matters relating to regional stability as well as the progress and prosperity of his own people. One hopes General Pervez Musharraf will think beyond the immediate survival of his regime while planning his next move.

Last Tuesday's terrorist attacks on the symbols of American might will force a change of thinking among the armchair Jehadis even if the hardcore ones do not change their mind. These attacks were meant to frighten the world's sole superpower but have had the opposite effect. The U.S. is neither scared nor humiliated. It is seeking revenge and retaliation. Those who turned to terrorism in frustration over the enormity and ruthlessness of U.S. power will now learn a new lesson. The way to get American sympathy and attention is not to commit suicide while hurting innocent people. It is to engage the U.S. by taking advantage of the openness of its system through reasoning and the power of argument. The Americans, too, have understood that they cannot ignore festering problems in remote parts of the world - from Palestine to Afghanistan to Kashmir - and live in comfortable isolation. These problems can directly affect the U.S. by motivating angry, violent people to break all rules of humane conduct.

Although some in Pakistan will probably be swept by anti- American sentiment, as has happened several times in the past, a cool- headed calculation of Pakistan's national interest should put Pakistan in the U.S. corner. Until such time as the Muslim world can match the economic, military and intellectual prowess of the U.S., delusions of competing with or standing up to ``Washington's arrogance'' need to be set aside. Some ideologues will undoubtedly ask, ``where is the evidence against Osama bin Laden''. Others are already saying on the Internet that this could be the work of Israel's Mossad to fan hatred against the Palestinians and Muslims.

One conspiracy theory suggests that the U.S. military-industrial complex may have stage-managed these attacks to secure greater defence spending from Congress. But such views are as unrealistic as the idea that crashing commercial jets into New York's World Trade Center will bring western civilisation to its knees. These may be reflections of a strong sentiment spawned by the perceived one-sidedness of U.S. policy in the Middle East but cannot be the basis of Pakistan's foreign policy.

Most Pakistanis, including saner elements in the religious right, share the worldwide indignation over the latest terrorist attacks. The presence of Pakistanis and Muslims among the thousands of casualties resulting from the September 11 attacks is reason enough to reject the views of apologists for extremism. Now the Government must rebuild the Pakistan-U.S. relationship, ignoring the sentimentality that has undermined it in recent years.

Although relations with the U.S. have been central to Pakistan's foreign policy, the Pakistani attitude has been marred by a rather romantic notion of what an international alliance means. During two wars with India (1965 and 1971), the U.S. did not help Islamabad the way it expected. The Americans had advised Pakistan against going to war on both occasions and did not consider it in their interest to get directly involved. They were pragmatic - even opportunistic - in calculating their interests even if the Pakistanis were not. But Pakistanis have felt betrayed by the U.S. ever since. Pakistan's role in the anti-Soviet war in Afghanistan has exacerbated public perception of the U.S. as an ``untrustworthy'' ally. The truth is that at the height of the Cold War, Pakistani leaders sought security against India through treaties with the U.S. The relationship served Pakistan well. It got better weapons and substantial economic aid. The U.S. assistance made the Pakistan Army what it is today. If the U.S. refused to fight Pakistan's wars with India, why should anyone blame it for pursuing its own national interest. After all, Pakistan never committed troops to fight in Korea and Vietnam, despite being America's ally.

The problem in U.S.-Pakistan relations does not lie in Washington but rather in Islamabad. Pakistan's decision-makers fail to analyse the situation correctly, create false expectations and then get bitter over disappointments. There is no romance between nations and each nation must do what it considers as being to its advantage. This might not sound fair to some but that is the way it is. In the post-cold-War world, U.S. ascendance is unchallenged. The U.S. is now the world's sole superpower and symbolic terrorist attacks do not detract from that reality. Real or perceived flaws of American diplomacy and national character notwithstanding, Pakistan has to reconcile to U.S. pre-eminence in today's world and work to secure maximum advantage for itself in the context of that pre-eminence. In any case, Pakistan needs to join the global effort against terrorism because it has become a menace for itself as a nation, and its victims include the Pakistani people. The fact that Pakistanis and Muslims were among those killed on September 11 should sensitise Pakistani decision- makers to the feelings of non-combatant Indians, who get killed or hurt without having any role in the policies that terrorist acts ostensibly oppose.

Instead of allowing rhetoric to dictate policy, Pakistan must decide on the simple calculus of gains and losses. There is great need to understand American concerns, define Pakistani interests, and then blend the two for a realistic equation. But joining the U.S.-led coalition should not delude Pakistan into believing once again that it will get everything it wants, especially in relation to India. For that Pakistan will have to start dealing rationally with the decision-makers in New Delhi. The U.S. too is unlikely to give up its concerns about nuclear policy, alleged support for Islamic militants and lack of democracy, in return for using Pakistani Intelligence or air space to strike at Osama bin Laden.

(The writer was Adviser to Prime Ministers Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto and Pakistan's envoy to Sri Lanka.)

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