Russia fears refugee influx into Central Asia

By Atul Aneja

MOSCOW, SEPT. 24. Within days after his talks with the Prime Minister's Principal Secretary, Mr. Brajesh Mishra, the Russian National Security Adviser, Mr. Vladimir Rushailo, headed for the barren divide that separates the Central Asian Republic of Tajikistan from Afghanistan.

From a helicopter, Mr. Rushailo and Tajikistan's President, Mr. Emomaly Rakhmonov, grimly surveyed key areas of the 1,500 km long border with Afghanistan from where a flood of refugees could descend if the U.S. wages a war with the Taliban.

If this happened it could destabilise the Central Asian region. Central Asia has been Russia's backyard since the late 19th century after a wave of Tsarist expansionism swept through the region and brought Moscow to the gates of Afghanistan.

Today, Central Asia is also its soft underbelly. Moscow perceives the destabilisation of Central Asia a threat to it national security.

Aware of the necessity of a Central Asian buffer between Afghanistan and mainland Russia, Moscow has deployed 30,000 of its troops in Tajikistan.

Tajikistan forms Moscow's first and foremost defence line. Its importance is evident as its next line of resistance has been positioned much deeper on the mainland.

Russia fears that refugees from Afghanistan can pour into Central Asia, not only through the Tajikistan border, but also from the 744 km- porous frontier between Afghanistan and Turkmenistan.

Its worries have been heightened as Turkmenistan is showing no signs that it would intervene to stem the flow of refugees.

Russia's apprehension about refugee flow is not just related to economic matters.

Its concerns are political as it knows that a large number of those who arrive have been radicalised in Afghanistan and have links with simmering pro- Taliban Islamic movements active in Central Asia.

For instance, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), which has intruded into Ferghana Valley, has well- established links with the Taliban. Led by Namangani, the IMU launched a spectacular attack to assassinate Uzbek President, Mr. Islam Karimov, last year.

The presence of refugees, many of whom are also likely to be armed, can greatly extend the sweep of radical Islamic movement in Central Asia, threaten the secular but mostly authoritarian regimes in these countries and gravely destabilise the region.

Russia also fears a political vacuum in the region if it looks the other way. Lack of activism on its part could result in the entrenchment of the U.S. in the area. There are several indications now that the U.S. may be inclined to launch an assault on the Taliban from Central Asia and possibly from Pakistan.

There have also been reports that the U.S. is seeking military bases, especially in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

Russia, therefore, now wants to play a leading role in the campaign to dislodge the Taliban.

In fact, Moscow along with Teheran and New Delhi wants the Taliban Opposition, represented under the umbrella organisation, the Northern Alliance, over which they have a considerable hold, revived.

Once the Northern Alliance is rolled in, the U.S.-led coalition can complement its forays from southern Afghanistan. Russian diplomacy is currently in an overdrive to convince the U.S. to go ahead with the broad parameters of the plan.

In attempting to do so, Moscow has two cards up its sleeve. It still has the best intelligence on Afghanistan and can demand some price for sharing it.

Russia also can make a solid contribution in consolidating an anti-terrorist coalition. It is positioned well to draw the Chinese into the campaign.

It also has special ties with Iran, which it had supported at a time when the U.S. attempt to isolate Teheran was pronounced.

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Section  : International
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