Uzbek-U.S. deal over base

By Atul Aneja

MOSCOW, SEPT. 25. Uzbekistan, which straddles the northern end of the Afghan border, is in the process of positioning U.S. planes on its soil. These aircraft, along with other aviation hardware for surveillance, are being landed at the Tuzel military base, not far from Tashkent.

While the U.S. is looking at Pakistan to counter the Taliban in the south, Uzbekistan is becoming its foremost regional ally in the north.

The unmanned spy plane, which the Taliban has shot down in Afghanistan, was launched from the Central Asian republic of Uzbekistan, and not Pakistan.

The assessment here is that the Uzbek government, led by the President, Mr. Islam Karimov, has struck a deal with the U.S. over base facilities without taking Russia into confidence. Russia, which zealously guards its Central Asian backyard against external interference, has taken notice of Mr. Karmiov's ``defiance''. But Moscow, which has enormous leverage over Uzbekistan, is unlikely to act in a hurry. Its assertion is expected to come later and at a time when domestic opposition in Uzbekistan against Mr. Karimov's decision mounts. Moscow is aware that any turmoil in Uzbekistan will force the U.S. to recognise it as the foremost power broker in the region.

Sources pointed out that the U.S. recourse to Uzbekistan as a staging post was reinforced by the reluctance of Tajikistan - another Central Asian republic on Afghanistan's northern frontline - to hand over its bases for air attacks against the Taliban.

Turkmenistan is the third country in the region which borders Afghanistan for 744 km. It is, however, unlikely to provide facilities to the U.S. as it has signed a treaty with Russia, which virtually makes Moscow the custodian of its defence.

While Russia will carefully monitor the initial phase of the U.S.-Uzbek military engagement from the sidelines, it is likely to intervene after dissent in Uzbekistan grows. Internal resistance to Mr. Karimov's gamble of drawing in the U.S., presumably to shore up his uncertain political future, is expected to be mounted by the IMU. This confrontation between Uzbekistan's secularists and extremists is excepted grow enormously, in case the U.S. pushes its ground forces into Afghanistan from the Uzbek flank.

Russia's capacity to tighten the screws on Uzbekistan cannot be under-estimated. Uzbekistan, for instance, is crucially dependent on Russia for its economic survival.

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