GDP growth slumps to 4.4 p.c. in Q1

By Our Special Correspondent

NEW DELHI, SEPT. 28. The Indian economy grew only 4.4 per cent during the first quarter (April-June 2001) of the current fiscal, down sharply from the 6.1 per cent growth registered in the same period last year.

Data released by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) reveal that but for three sectors - agriculture, forestry and fishing, finance, insurance, real estate and business services and community, social and personal services - all other segments of the economy have posted lower growth than what they registered in the same period last year.

In absolute terms, the quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) at constant (1993-94) prices is estimated at Rs. 299,941 crores against Rs. 287,168 crores in the first quarter of 2000-01. This reflects a growth rate of 4.4 per cent over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

Sector-wise statistics show that agriculture, forestry and fishing grew 2.3 per cent in the first quarter this year (against 0.6 per cent in the same period of last year), mining and quarrying was stagnant at nil growth (5 per cent), manufacturing was up only 2.3 per cent (7 per cent), electricity, gas and water supply by 3.3 per cent (5.7 per cent) and construction by 2.4 per cent only (8.4 per cent).

Trade, hotels, transport and communication services registered a 5.2 per cent growth (9.7 per cent) while financing, insurance, real estate and business services were marginally up at 9.9 per cent (9.5 per cent). Community, social and personal services were up 6.2 per cent (6 per cent), taking the overall GDP growth during the first quarter this year to 4.4 per cent against 6.1 per cent in the first quarter of the previous year.

Information furnished by the Department of Agriculture has shown that production of rice, wheat, coarse cereals and pulses during the rabi season (which ends in June) had declined by 6.9 per cent, 9.4 per cent, 14 per cent and 24.4 per cent, respectively, over the corresponding season in the previous year. Among commercial crops, oilseeds and cotton registered negative growths of 22.6 per cent and 19.3 per cent, respectively, during the rabi season while sugarcane registered a marginal positive growth of 0.4 per cent.

On the industrial front, the index for mining, manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates of negative 0.1 per cent, positive 2.5 per cent and positive 2.2 per cent, respectively, during the first quarter of 2001-02 as compared to growths of 3.7 per cent, 6.5 per cent and 5.1 per cent in the same period last year.

The key indicators of the construction sector, namely, cement and finished steel, registered growth rates of 2.4 per cent and negative 0.2 per cent, respectively, during the first quarter of the current fiscal against a growth of 3.6 per cent and 12.2 per cent respectively last year.

Among the services sector, the railways have registered zero per cent growth rate in case of net tonne km of freight moved and 12.6 per cent in the case of passenger km during the first quarter, against 7 per cent and 5.9 per cent growth rate in the corresponding period last year.

Other indicators show that production of commercial vehicles registered a negative growth of 16.2 per cent, cargo handling at major ports was down 5.8 per cent while aggregate bank deposits were up 18.6 per cent, bank credit by 12.8 per cent and the revenue expenditure of the Central Government was up 14 per cent.

In terms of current prices, GDP was estimated at Rs. 502,900 crores, up from Rs. 462,470 crores in the first quarter of last year. The increase works out to 8.7 per cent.

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