U.S. keeps Europe guessing on plan

By Batuk Gathani

BRUSSELS, SEPT. 30. There is uncertainty in the European Union and NATO about the emerging ``global alliance'' against international terrorism.

The U.S. and Britain are seen as adopting a posture of ``strategic patience'' and are giving the Taliban a last chance to hand over the suspected Saudi terrorist Osama bin Laden. NATO officials remain non-committal, but according to American and British observers, an attack on Afghanistan will begin ``with awe-inspiring aerial bombardment'' but nobody is sure where and what the so-called ``high targets'' are.

Some analysts believe that the military operation is unlikely to involve other NATO members. Some key NATO allies also suspect that while the Bush administration wants the military alliance's support, Washington does not trust NATO with its plans. It is also an open secret that American and British commando personnel have been operating in Afghanistan for some time to prepare ground for a military action and identify targets. According to U.S. defence officials, the elite commando troops are now providing logistical details for military planners who are drawing up options for an assault on Afghanistan.

A pall of secrecy appears to have descended on all this, prompting The Guardian's editorial writer to conclude: ``To be blunt, all this smacks of muddle and has the making of mayhem. Even a supposedly `new kind' of conflict can be mismanaged like any other. Mr Blair and Mr Bush need to sort out their ideas, clarify their aims, and submit their plans to the people who elected them before going any further down the road to war.''

In Germany, a leading member of the ruling coalition of Social Democrats and the Greens warned that the survival of the Chancellor, Mr. Gerhard Schroeder's Government could be at risk because of the crises brought about by terrorist attacks in the U.S. The speculation in Berlin is that the Greens may be asked to leave the coalition. It is also possible that Germany's widely admired Foreign Minister, Mr. Josckha Fischer, will desert the party which he once led and may join the Social Democrats. Mr. Fischer has hinted that his loyalty lies with the German Government and NATO. The anti-war dissident factions of the Greens may eventually compromise, if the military initiative against Afghanistan is taken under NATO's umbrella and with Russia's blessing.

European solidarity is now seen diluted by unease, as many officials' worry that a U.S. response could overreach, since the Arab and Muslim world remains ambiguous towards the Bush administrations' war on terrorists. To ensure a smooth transition to proposed global coalition against the scourge of terrorism, the E.U. delegation led by Mr. Javier Solana travelled last week to Muslim and Arab capitals. The European mission's ostensible purpose was to widen support for the U.S.-led global coalition against terrorism.

European diplomats are also trying to organise humanitarian assistance for countries sheltering some three million Afghan refugees. The main thrush of the E.U.'s diplomatic mission is to establish a better rapport with Syria and Iran, where the U.S. diplomats have no access.

Some European officials are apprehensive that lack of trans- Atlantic consensus on the future role of Syria and Iran could even split the proposed coalition. But the silver lining is that senior officials in the Bush administration are themselves split on the strategy of targeting Iraq and containing Syria and Iraq.

Outside the E.U., Japan, Canada and Australia have made similar offers. China too has promised to share intelligence.

Russia is seen in a ``grey zone'' but has yet to list it demands for support the war against terrorism. Pakistan is a big question mark as European diplomats are analysing the unfolding pro- Taliban scenario in Pakistan, as the military Government has promised support to the U.S. Government.

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