U.S. attacks on Afghanistan unlikely before next week

By Atul Aneja

NEW DELHI, OCT. 3. The U.S.-led coalition is unlikely to attack Afghanistan before next week and the strikes are expected to be followed by a major assault by the Taliban Opposition.

According to the Government's assessment here, the coalition is expected to complete all its military deployments in the region between October 7 and 10. A decision to launch the strikes is expected to be taken sometime after that. A section of the Government here, however, predicts the possibility of an attack either on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Government sources here say that the Northern Alliance battling the Taliban in Afghanistan had already positioned itself for an attack across Afghanistan's northern frontiers. The Northern Alliance, which represents Afghanistan's ethnic minorities, is fully united after the assassination of its top military commander, Ahmad Shah Masood, last month. The overall military command of the Northern Alliance is under the Tajik general, Mohammad Fahim Khan.

Ethnic Uzbeks who comprise a sizeable population of Afghanistan are led by General Rashid Dostum as well as Malik Pahalwan. Karim Khalili leads the pro-Iranian ethnic Hazaras, while Ismail Khan, who is active in the Herat area of Afghanistan, represents the Shias. The Sayaf group, which is also close to the Iranians, is active in the Panjsher valley area.

The Government is bracing for all possible scenarios. According to one view, the U.S., which could be inclined to work out a future relationship with the ``moderate element'' of the Taliban, may not undertake massive strikes on Afghanistan. It might wait for divisions in the Taliban and then go after the extremist groups within the outfit after they are isolated. As of now, the U.S. is looking at the formation of a stable political coalition in Afghanistan, where a ``defanged'' Taliban and the ethnic minorities under the Northern Alliance are accommodated under a constitutional monarchy led by the former ruler, Mr. Zahir Shah.

The U.S., however, may adopt a stronger approach in case the Taliban remains fully united and uncompromising. The Indian security establishment is focusing its attention on phase- II of the operations. At least two possibilities, as of now, are discernible. The U.S. may go in for a massive long-lasting operation to eliminate terrorist sanctuaries all over the world. Such an approach will suit India for it will cover terrorism in Kashmir and other parts of the country.

However, a limited U.S. interest in the second phase after it concludes operations in Afghanistan cannot be ruled out. In such a scenario, Pakistan may step up extremist activity in Kashmir and India left to fend for itself.

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