Replacing Taliban: mixing diplomacy with force

By C. Raja Mohan

NEW DELHI, OCT. 3. Many in India who were expecting to see a full blown American war in Afghanistan on CNN and BBC are disappointed. As the American focus remains on diplomacy, military operations have been held back and are unlikely to take place in the expected form.

States use force to achieve certain political outcomes. Force is not employed for its own sake. Occasionally, force is used to punish an adversary. That is what the U.S. did in August 1998 when it bombed terrorist camps in Afghanistan following the attacks on American embassies in East Africa.

This time around the stakes are much higher for America. Immediate carpet bombing of Afghanistan might have satisfied the thirst for retribution in America. But it would also have strengthened the perception that the American war against terror is a war against Islam and the Afghan people.

The use of force by the U.S., if and when it happens, will be calibrated to achieve specific political aims - to capture Osama bin Laden and snap the support from the Afghan state to his terror networks.

By all indications a limited use of force might be able to achieve these objectives if coupled with effective diplomacy. The U.S. aerial attacks and use of special forces will be aimed at destroying the Taliban's few military assets. They could facilitate the military advance of the Taliban's enemies inside Afghanistan. The U.S. would also want the operations to be quick and decisive, once initiated. Meanwhile, it is trying to stitch together an alternative political arrangement ready to take charge from the Taliban.

Delay in military action, however, does not mean American military force has not played a part so far. The American moves to assemble a powerful force around Afghanistan have generated some political effects. When you have a very large force, like the Americans do, the very threat of its use has as much impact as its actual employment.

In anticipation of American attacks, the Afghan cities have emptied out. Many of the terrorist camps have been temporarily shut down. And most important, the American threat of use of force has opened the prospects for restructuring the political order in Afghanistan.

If the Taliban were prepared for a serious negotiation with the U.S. on handing over Osama and shutting down the terrorist camps, Washington appeared fully prepared to deal with Kandahar. The latest Taliban offer to negotiate has come too late and does not appear to have much credibility.

As a result American diplomacy to replace the Taliban regime has gained momentum and is moving in tandem with the military plans. Monday's agreement between the exiled King Zahir Shah and the Northern Alliance is the single biggest step forward on the diplomatic front.

As part of the agreement, a 120-member Supreme Council for National Unity of Afghanistan will soon be set up by the King and the Northern Alliance. The Council, in turn, will convene a ``Loya Jirga'' - or a traditional meeting of the tribal chiefs and elders - that will define the future political arrangements.

For all practical purposes, the Supreme Council is likely to become the interim government replacing the Taliban. For the Council to be credible, the U.S. will have to get significant elements of the Pashtun community in southern Afghanistan to join it. The political game in the next few days will be about facilitating major defections from the Taliban.

Media reports the threat of American use of force has created confusion in the ranks of the Taliban. The leader of the Taliban, Mullah Omar, has begun to talk of waging an extended guerrilla war against a possible ``puppet government'' in Kabul and its international supporters.

The immediate challenge for the U.S. lies less in devising a military plan. It rests in the extraordinary difficulty of nudging a credible and representative group of Afghan leaders under one umbrella and holding them together. Meanwhile, the fractious nature of Afghan politics and the fog of the impending war are likely to generate unexpected dynamics of their own.

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