New plan to oust Taliban?

By Hasan Suroor

LONDON, OCT. 6. Alongside hectic military preparations, Britain and the U.S. are reported to be working on plans that could see the Taliban regime in Afghanistan topple without a shot being fired. The new strategy, according to reports circulating here, is aimed at getting rid of the main ``obstacle'' in the way of reaching Osama bin Laden, possibly through diplomatic efforts in view of the palpable unease, particularly in the Muslim world, about backing a huge military operation against Kabul.

Analysts said the new thinking was also an admission that the Western intelligence had no idea where Bin Laden was and that a ``blind'' military operation to hunt him down could go terribly wrong. A friendly government, especially if it comprised moderate Taliban elements, was seen as a less risky route to Bin Laden and his network. The Taliban Foreign Minister, Mr. Wakil Ahmed Muttawakil, is being mentioned as among the prominent moderates most likely to be included in a new dispensation vaguely described as ``broad-based and democratic''.

There is apparently anxiety that the change should appear to have come from ``within'', rather than imposed by the West as an act of vengeance. ``The U.S. and Britain are sensitive to accusations from Muslim countries that they are trying to foist a government on Afghanistan,'' The Guardian said. The Taliban component in the alternative regime is also said to be vital because of their influence on the Pushtuns.

Significantly, it is being emphasised here that the Northern Alliance is not seen as a viable alternative by itself and one British official is quoted as saying that handing over Afghanistan to the Northern Alliance would be a ``recipe for disaster''. What is envisaged is a coalition of wide-ranging tribal and ethnic interests with the former Afghanistan king Zahir Shah, who lives in Rome in exile, serving as a nominal head. There is a strong possibility of the U.N. playing a key role in any transition, and the appointment of Mr. Lakhdar Brahimi, an Algerian-born diplomat, as the U.N.'s chief envoy to Afghanistan - a post believed to have been specially created to deal with the present crisis - is seen as a pointer to U.N.'s involvement.

Observers said the Prime Minister, Mr. Tony Blair's visit to Pakistan was intended to ``hard sell'' the post-Taliban scenario to Islamabad and he appeared to have succeeded in breaking down the military regime's resistance on the issue. The Times said the Pakistan President, Gen. Parvez Musharraf's willingness to accept a post-Taliban scenario was regarded by Britain as ``an important breakthrough'' in its bid to draw Islamabad more firmly into the Western alliance. It said this was the first time that he was ``prepared to countenance'' such a prospect.

The media grapevine, meanwhile, buzzed with speculation that the Taliban were slowly ``disintegrating'' and faced large-scale defections from their ranks. With their traditional sources of funding - Saudi Arabia, UAE and Pakistan, among others - having dried up the Taliban were said to be confronted with the prospect of losing the tribal loyalties bought with money. ``There are already reports of large-scale defections from the Taliban and the likelihood is that some who call themselves Taliban today will take off their black turbans and change sides,'' one newspaper said. Most media reports appeared to have been inspired by official briefings as they used almost identical language in predicting the demise of the Taliban.

``Experts'' were poring over the video footage of Bin Laden, released by a Qatar-based TV channel, for clues to his location and much interest was focussed on whether it was taken before or after the September 11 terrorist attacks in America. While the TV channel did not say when it was made, The Times insisted that it was ``believed'' to have been made after September 11 and was released ``in a calculated gesture of contempt for America, Britain and the countries mobilising against him''.

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