Russian plane crash: missile theory gains strength

By Vladimir Radyuhin

MOSCOW, OCT. 6. Confusion and controversy is surrounding the probe into the crash of a Russian airliner, prompting speculation that political motives could be influencing investigation.

The chartered Tupolev Tu-154 airliner carrying 64 mainly Israeli passengers and 12 crew on a flight from Tel Aviv to Novosibirsk plunged into the Black Seah after an explosion sighted by several witnesses on Thursday.

As circumstantial evidence built up in favour of the TU-154 downed by a Ukrainian missile, investigators increasingly looked for other causes. Russian prosecutors, who on Friday opened a criminal investigation into a possible terrorist act aboard the ill-fated plane, on Saturday said they were concentrating on technical malfunction of the airliner. Experts find this cause neigh impossible, for the simple reason that the pilots would have had time to report any technical problem on board, which they never did.

Russia's Izvestia daily on Saturday quoted unnamed sources in the CIS Interstate Aviation Committee involved in the investigation as saying that the missile theory was the most likely.

Ukraine was conducting air-defence exercises over the Black Sea at the time of the crash, but its military officials have strongly rejected ever ``hyperthenical probability'' that their missile could have hit the Russian airliner. However, Ukraine's Prime Minister, Mr. Anatoly Kinakh, on Friday conceded that this theory ``has a right to exist''.

Ukraine's Defence Minister, Mr. Alexander Kuzmuk, was caught lying on two occasions within several hours of the crash. First he said that the air defence exercises had not taken place on Thursday, then took back his words, but claimed that the missiles fired had a maximum range of 30 to 35 km. The Ukrainian military later admitted that they had fired some missiles with a range of 250 km that could in theory hit the Russian airliner. At least one of the missiles had missed its target, but Ukrainian officials said it had been safely destroyed in the air.

Experts said a quick look at fragments of the airliner would be enough to determine whether it had been hit by a missiles. Russian rescuers have already recovered parts of the wreckage, one of which had bullet-like holes, but investigators have refused to comment till a technical expertise has been carried out. Moscow has asked the U.S. to provide satellite pictures that reportedly captured the launching of a Ukrainian missile towards the Russian airliner.

Analysts speculated that the true cause of the crash was already clear to both Russian and Ukrainian officials, but would not be announced before the U.S. begins its strikes in Afghanistan, which would help cushion the negative impact of the plane incident for Russian-Ukrainian relations.

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Section  : International
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