Can the king and his men do it?

By VAIJU NARAVANE

MOHAMMED ZAHIR Shah, the former ruler of Afghanistan who turns 87 on October 15, lives in a secluded villa surrounded by gardens in the northern Roman suburb of Cassia. Security is extremely tight and policemen will not allow anyone, including accredited journalists, to approach the constantly patrolled security perimeter without prior appointment.

``We cannot allow you anywhere near the villa. Those are the instructions,'' an Italian officer says tersely handing back special accreditation issued by the Italian Foreign Ministry. The King has lived in exile in Rome for the past 28 years, ever since he was ousted in a coup d'etat by his socialist-minded cousin and brother-in-law General Daoud, who himself came to a sticky end in 1978.

The sirens of police outriders and escort vehicles wail frequently at the Italian Foreign Ministry and various western embassies, particularly that of the U.S. in downtown Rome, as a continuous diplomatic ballet unfolds. Zahir Shah is at the epicentre of this storm of dialogue and consultations. The intense negotiations under way have been described as ``The Rome Process''. Over the past several years, with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan consolidating its hold, introducing harsh, fundamentalist and obscurantist policies, exporting terrorism, drugs and radical Islam, the former king has been increasingly viewed, not only by the U.S. but by several western states and the U.N., as the sole unifying, acceptable figure. They say a national coalition government could be built around him to bring peace and stability to a country battered and ruined by 23 years of war and civil war. Attempts to explore a possible return of the former ruler have gained more urgency since September 11. ``I would like to make it absolutely clear that His Majesty is not a pretender to the throne,'' the former ruler's son-in-law, General Abdul Wali, told The Hindu earlier this week. ``For a long time he has wished to place himself at the service of his people. He is a patriot, loved by his people. He wants to spend the remainder of his life doing whatever he can to help his countrymen.'' But while the king is remembered with affection and nostalgia by his people, he lacks military support on the ground from his own ethnic community, the Pashtuns.

Attempts to bring the king back as a unifying factor who would be able to knit together a government of national reconciliation are not a recent development. Last November, Zahir Shah proposed the holding of a Loya Jirga, a traditional gathering of tribes, which he said could heal the country, and sent representatives to Afghanistan to muster support for his plan. But the Taliban and Pakistan shot down the proposal, saying the king had done little or nothing for his people during ten years of Soviet occupation and at the critical juncture of the Red Army's withdrawal in 1989.

The U.S. belief that the former ruler represents the best chance to end the civil war and install a national unity government in Afghanistan was further underlined by the fact that the President, Mr. George W. Bush, has sent his special envoy, Mr. Richard Haas, for yet another round of talks with the king. The U.S. Charge d'Affaires in Rome, Mr. William Pope, is a seasoned diplomat who has several times played a crucial role for the U.S. in delicate negotiations. He has served in Croatia, Pretoria and was on the inter-agency task force on sanctions against Serbia and Montenegro. Civil war and inter-ethnic conflicts are a familiar terrain for Mr. Pope who has held many, very long meetings with the king and his top advisers. A delegation of U.S. congressmen called on Zahir Shah to pledge American support and massive aid for reconstruction.

The king was praised by the U.N. special envoy to Afghanistan, Mr. Francesco Vandrell, who said the former monarch could play a major role in the political reconciliation of the country. The U.N. Secretary-General, Mr. Kofi Annan, has just named Mr. Lakhdar Brahimi, a former Algerian Minister, as his new special envoy for Afghanistan. Mr. Brahimi who has held the post once before has been given the task of paving the way to establish ``a fully representative and multi-ethnic unity government''. Last Monday, in what has been described as ``a watershed moment'', the king and a delegation from the Northern Alliance reached an agreement on ways to establish a broad-based popular government in Afghanistan. ``The agreement provides for the election of a head of state and the formation of a transitional government through a Loya Jirga. The Government will thus have both legitimacy and legality,`` General Wali told The Hindu.

Mohammed Younus Quanooni who headed the Northern Alliance delegation to Rome said the agreement was ``the start of a new era to bring unity to the country'', while Mr. Abdul Sattar Sirat, one of the king's advisers said the Supreme Council or Shoura would become ``the only legitimate institution to take decisions on important issues relevant to Afghanistan''.

There are now reports of tribal and military chiefs defecting from the ranks of the Taliban to join the Northern Alliance, especially in the region of Paktia and Laghman. Dr. Abdullah, officially described as the Foreign Minister of the late commander Ahmed Shah Masood's forces, told journalists that ``ten thousand men'' could change sides and join the Northern Alliance which will have 60 of the 120 seats in the Shoura or Supreme Council. But there remains uncertainty as to who will hold the remaining 60 seats and relations between the king's entourage and the Northern Alliance have been described as delicate.

``The remaining 60 of the 120 seats on the Supreme Council will go to Afghan groups operating from outside the country. But it is important that all the ethnic groups are represented - Hazaras, Uzbeks, Tajiks, Pashtuns.'' Dr. Abdullah also said that he had ``held meetings with U.S. emissaries'', most probably in Dushanbe.

A name that crops up regularly as someone who could give the king much-needed Pashtun support is that of the former Mujahideen commander, Haji Abdul Haq, who has held meetings with U.S. Congressmen and U.S. and Iranian diplomats, and other Afghan leaders, including members of the Northern Alliance. A famous commander of the Hizbi Islami (Khalis group) in the Kabul region in the 1980s, he lost a leg in fighting, and suffered further personal tragedy when his family was killed in an attack in Peshawar, largely believed to be the work of pro-Taliban Pakistani agents. His brother, Haji Abdul Qadeer, is an ally of Masood's United National Islamic Front for the Salvation of Afghanistan.

These behind-the-cenes diplomatic moves have understandably unnerved Pakistan who would like to see the installation of a pro-Islamabad Government in Kabul in the event of the Taliban being ousted. The king is unlikely to be acceptable to Pakistan.

``Pakistan has helped the Taliban, there is no point in denying this,'' General Wali told The Hindu. ``It has followed a policy which it felt was in its own interest. Maybe they now realise this did not give good results.''

Pakistan's Minister for Women's Rights, Ms. Atiya Inayatullah, told The Hindu in Paris: ``We are not against the Rome Process but we have said it doesn't stand a chance because it cannot be extended to a hundred per cent of the population. We are talking about an entry point which has come from the king and the northern areas which represent five per cent of the population. At this point in time, there are at least three if not four tracks. Pakistan is in the loop in all of them and we are waiting for the best formula.''

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