Rebels in demand

By B. MURALIDHAR REDDY

IF YOU are wondering about the delay in U.S. counter strikes on Afghanistan, then shift focus to the Northern Alliance and its increasing clout and control over territory. The advances this loose grouping of anti-Taliban forces has achieved in the last 20 days would take any Afghanistan watcher by surprise. In fact, the Northern Alliance is the convenient Afghan face of the United States' war.

As its name suggests, the Northern Alliance mainly comprises Afghanistan's ethnic and religious minorities - Uzbeks, Tajiks, Turkmen and Hazaras - from the northern areas which are its main support base and not southern Afghanistan. The Alliance, also known as the United Front, was formed in end-1996 to thwart the northward advance of the Pashtun-dominated Taliban.

Two major groups that joined hands to form the Alliance were the Jumbish-i-Milli led by the former communist chief of the Afghan Government's Uzbek militia, General Abdur Rashid Dostum, and the chief of the Tajik Shura-i-Nazaar, Ahmad Shah Masood. Two other major groups to join in were the anti-Taliban Pashtun leader of the former mujahideen outfit Harkat-i-Islami, Prof. Abdur Rab Rasool Sayyaf, and the shia Hazara militia from the central Bamiyan province.

Initially, the Alliance emerged as a formidable challenge to the Taliban but it weakened over the years as the Taliban was able to cash in on the internal differences. By the turn of the century, Taliban was practically in control. All this changed this year when 15,000-odd fighters led by Masood started gaining ground. Masood, called the Lion of Panjshir, had managed to keep his guerilla fighters in shape despite the reversals and acute manpower shortage. Backed by Iran and Russia, he was even able to engineer defections from among the Taliban. On September 9, he was killed by two Arab assassins. Even as the Alliance was dealing with the shock of Masood's death, the U.S. decided to take on the Taliban and the rebels seemed a logical choice as allies.

Gen. Fahim, Masood's loyal lieutenant, Gen. Dostum and the Hazara leader, Mr. Karim Khalili, are the new faces of the Alliance. If they can set aside their squabbles and add the crucial Pashtun face by convincing King Zahir Shah to take up the mantle or by any other design, the Alliance could be the key factor in a successful Afghan policy of the U.S. And there rests the future of the Alliance as well.

The grand plan of the U.S. to install a new setup in Kabul under the patronage of King Zahir Shah has expectedly raised hackles in Pakistan. After all, Islamabad had banked on its ties with the Taliban for its so-called `strategic depth'.

As Gen. Pervez Musharraf himself acknowledged, in one of his candid television interviews early this week, the days of the Taliban are numbered. But the military regime has serious reservations about a new dispensation in Kabul as contemplated by the U.S. Iran and China share these fears.

They believe the new regime would be a puppet of the U.S. and could seriously jeopardise their interests in the region. The theme song of Islamabad is that it would not like a `hostile' regime in Kabul and the Northern Alliance is a `sworn enemy'. Islamabad is convinced that the Alliance is propped up by its enemies - read India and Russia. There have been allegations galore about military and material support from New Delhi and Moscow to the Alliance. From Gen. Musharraf downward, every important functionary in Pakistan has sought to remind the world about the fate of the `puppet governments' in Kabul.

What is the way out? The warnings from Islamabad are no doubt motivated by its own self-interest, but no one denies an element of truth in them. The picture is still hazy despite the categorical assurance by the British Prime Minister, Mr. Tony Blair, that Pakistan's interests would be protected in a future setup.

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Section  : Opinion
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