High stakes for India

By Atul Aneja

NEW DELHI, OCT. 7.

In the wake of the U.S. attacks on Afghanistan, India is keenly looking at the role played by the Northern Alliance which is fighting the Taliban regime. Highly placed sources in the Government say that a link-up between the Alliance and the U.S.- led coalition had been established prior to the strikes. The Alliance has not only been stiffened by a fresh dose of Russian origin weaponry, but it has also reportedly started receiving equipment from the West.

India has invested heavily in the Northern Alliance along with Russia and Iran. But it was the visit of the Russian President, Mr. Vladimir Putin, last year, which enhanced India's importance as a player within the Afghan opposition. India, Iran and Russia, for the first time, met jointly in the Tajik capital, Dushanbe, last month. The meeting took place after the terrorist attacks in New York and the assassination of the top Northern Alliance military commander, Ahmad Shah Massood. The purpose of this highly important meeting was to chart out a joint future strategy for Afghanistan.

India, it is understood, has provided financial and humanitarian assistance, including medical equipment, to the Northern Alliance in the past.

India's interests would be better served if a beefed up Northern Alliance makes territorial gains. The recapture of territory is a must in case the alliance has to find a forceful voice in a future political arrangement, after the extremist elements from the Taliban have been removed. With the Northern Alliance enhancing its clout during future negotiations, India would seek to promote two of its key national security interests. First, a high profile Northern Alliance presence in talks can ensure that Afghanistan does not become a springboard for exporting terrorism to Kashmir, a concern referred to by the Prime Minister, Mr. A.B. Vajpayee, during a joint press conference with the visiting British Prime Minister, Mr. Tony Blair, on Saturday. Second, a more representative arrangement in Afghanistan, under the influence of the Northern Alliance, can ensure that Pakistan is denied the ``strategic depth'' it wishes to acquire vis-a vis India by exercising a disproportionate influence over Kabul.

According to sources, the Northern Alliance, for the first time, is likely to use its newly formed Air Force in undertaking its offensive. This Air Force has been formed mainly with Russian support, but also with considerable Indian help. In fact, sources are of the view that the formation of this force was one of the factors which galvanised the Pakistani intelligence to target Ahmad Shah Masood last month.

The death of Masood has been big blow for India. Sources, however, confirmed that India has good equation with Gen. Mohammad Fahim who has succeeded Masood. Mr. Burhanudin Rabbani, president of the Northern Alliance, continues to remain a good friend of India.

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