Colin Powell's visit

By Chinmaya R. Gharekhan

WHAT IS the purpose behind the visit of the American Secretary of State, Gen. Colin Powell, to India and Pakistan at this stage? Is it merely to express the appreciation of his Government for the support extended by these two countries in the war against terrorism? Or, is it something more?

In Pakistan, Gen. Powell will convey the profound gratitude of the Administration as well as the people of the United States for the vital support extended by Pakistan in the war against Osama bin Laden and the Taliban, not just in the form of logistics, intelligence sharing and use of air space, but, equally importantly, in the diplomatic game by sending delegations to Kandahar to talk to the leaders of the Taliban in an apparent effort to persuade them to agree to the demands of the American President, Mr. George W. Bush. That politico-diplomatic exercise was of great significance for Mr. Bush since it bought him time not only to deploy and position his forces but also to demonstrate to the Islamic world as well to his own people that he was being responsible and reasonable. Those two weeks enabled him also to put together a coalition of some 40 countries in what is undoubtedly a crucial war against terrorism.

Pakistan used the time to develop a framework of policy which would take care of the superpower's demands and, at the same time, protect and further its national interests in all fields, not excluding military. As it happens, the international community, including India, might have exaggerated the domestic difficulties of Pakistan's ruler, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, and this suited him just fine. Once Pakistan came to the conclusion that its interests dictated total identification with the American objectives, it did not stop at anything. It even abandoned the Taliban, its own creation, stopped hostility towards the Northern Alliance and embraced the idea of King Zahir Shah playing an important role in post- Taliban Afghanistan, thereby ensuring an effective voice for itself in government-formation. Indeed, Gen. Musharraf has already received assurances in that regard from America. Thus the Americans have much to be grateful for to Pakistan. We, in India, would believe that Pakistan has received much more in return but that would be our perception which might not be shared by the other party to that equation.

In India, Gen. Powell would certainly thank the Government for its offer of cooperation - an offer which, for the most part, has remained unutilised simply because the U.S. did not feel the need to use our air space or our airfields in the military campaign. He will try to reassure us about the renewed military relationship between his country and Pakistan, asking us not to attach undue importance to it or to read too much into it. He will reiterate previous statements about the U.S. being determined to deal with other terrorism once Osama bin Laden and company are dealt with.

He will surely tell our leaders that the U.S. has not made any commitment to Pakistan about Kashmir. He will once again condemn the terrorist attack on the Assembly complex on October 1. By time he comes to Delhi, Jaish-e-Mohammad might have declared a terrorist organisation. He would repeat his Government's position, namely, that the solution of the Kashmir dispute must be arrived at by Pakistan and India, taking into account the wishes of the Kashmiri people. All these statements and reassurances will be important; their significance should not be minimised.

Will there be something else on Gen. Powell's mind? One cannot exclude the possibility of his indicating the willingness of the U.S. to be ready to help restart the dialogue between India and Pakistan, and to be helpful in initiating some kind of a substantive discussion of the Kashmir problem. Mr. Bush, in his remarks soon after Gen. Musharraf's televised address of September 19, had suggested that the new situation created in the aftermath of the September 11 events might offer an opportunity for improved India-Pakistan atmosphere. The Prime Minister, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee, did write to Mr. Bush, asking him to convey a message to Pakistan that India's patience was not unlimited and, no doubt, the latter did transmit an appropriate message to the General.

Encouraged by Mr. Vajpayee's approach, which was dictated by the murderous attack on the Assembly complex in Srinagar, Mr. Bush might be tempted to at least throw feelers about a possible U.S. role in the Kashmir imbroglio. Gen. Musharraf, whose international standing has shot up in recent weeks, would be portrayed as a very reasonable man with whom it would be possible to negotiate in a restrained, polemic-free atmosphere. By renewing a multi-faceted relationship with Pakistan, the U.S. would claim to have regained as well its influence with it which can only be for the good of Indo-Pakistan relations.

There is no denying the fact that the relations between India and Pakistan, already strained after Agra, have become more tense in recent days. The emotional outburst of the Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister, Dr. Farooq Abdullah, following the Assembly massacre and his public call for attacking the terrorist training camps across the Line of Control is an accurate indication of the mood in the State, widely shared in the rest of the country. One can, therefore, understand if the Americans, and the international community as a whole, feel concerned at the heightened tension between the two nuclear neighbours.

The politics in our country might not permit it, but we ought to devise a response, if indeed Gen. Powell has any such thing on his agenda, which, without amounting to an acceptance of any mediation, would not slam the door for some form of creative diplomacy to be deployed in future. After all, even Nehru had accepted American mediation way back in 1962 on the very same Kashmir issue in the wake of our war with China. True, India was much weaker then, militarily and economically. Also, the coalition government of today does not enjoy the kind of confidence that Nehru enjoyed even after the debacle of 1962.

Nonetheless, Mr. Vajpayee has shown, by his actions, that he is not afraid to take politically difficult decisions. He has also said, in his ``Musings from Kumarakom'', that he was determined to look for a solution to the Kashmir problem and that, in that search, he would not hesitate to try new approaches. If the U.S. can satisfy us on the question of our terrorism, if not fully, then at least to some extent, it might create an atmosphere wherein our people and politicians might be willing to countenance some American role in the Kashmir question.

In any case, we ought not to react out of pique at the over- generous manner in which the Americans are repaying Pakistan for what they perceive as the crucial help they have received in their war against Osama bin Laden and the Taliban. It would be ironic if the triangular equation involving the U.S., India and Pakistan were to change, with Pakistan enjoying warm relations and India feeling frustrated and bitter towards the U.S. The only country which would welcome such a denouement, though it would deny it, would be Pakistan.

(The writer is a former Permanent Representative of India to the United Nations and U.N. Special Coordinator in Gaza.)

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