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Tuesday, October 16, 2001

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'Civil aviation industry will emerge stronger'

By T.S. Shankar

KUALA LUMPUR, OCT.15 The global civil aviation industry will weather the current turbulence and emerge stronger, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) Director General and CEO, Mr. Pierre J. Jeanniot, has said.

``I am very confident (about the recovery). But all the actors - the Governments, infrastructure-providers and the airlines - need to share the same vision'', he said while unveiling the forecast for the global aviation sector.

Amidst this optimism, though, the Asian Airlines braced themselves for capacity and pay cuts to cope with a post- terrorist attack downturn, even as a global industry group forecast a possible recovery by next September.

The IATA CEO has also said that in addition to more intense application of conventional airport security screening, defence against potential terrorism should consist of two elements: better Government intelligence and a worldwide application of biometrics.

``IATA has been advocating biometrics for the past two years. People involved in using the air transport product, particularly frequent flyers, or delivering the air transport product, employees of airlines and airports, would have been subjected to an Iris Scan check and their details stored on a data base. Once they have been positively vetted, they would be allowed to go about their business, with no further checking'', Mr. Jeanniot has said.

Unveiling the IATA's proposal at a two-day international seminar for Asia Pacific Journalists on Air Transport Safety Information held in Kuala Lumpur on October 11 and 12, Mr. William Gaillard, the IATA's Corporate Communications Director, said from November, the Iris Scan would be introduced at the London Heathrow airport by the British Airways and the Virgin Atlantic Airways.

The airline industry could bounce back within a year from the September suicide attacks, said the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which represents 275 of the world's airlines.

It based the forecast on the Gulf War experience. In 1991, it took seven months for growth to return to the industry and another four months for the industry to return to its longer- term trend.

But getting there will be painful, Mr. Jeanniot has said adding that September 11 would be remembered as the ``darkest day for civil aviation''.

Before the attacks, the IATA estimate for 2001 was a loss of $2.5 billion for international scheduled services of the IATA worldwide. Now it is looking at net losses of $7 billion on scheduled services if traffic and capacity were both cut by 15 per cent in the December quarter, Mr.Jeanniot said.

This translated into a 2001 traffic reduction of nearly five per cent and nearly 3 per cent in capacity.

Airlines have already taken drastic steps to beef up security since September 11, including strengthening cockpit doors and limiting carry-on hand bags to one.

These add to the financial pressure on a global business with thin margins and fixed costs. The global civil aviation sector has lost over 120,000 jobs in the last four weeks.

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