Afghan war may hurt State badly

By K.P.M. Basheer

KOCHI, OCT. 15 A decade after the Gulf War played havoc with the State's life, the U.S.-led attack on Afghanistan is threatening to cause huge damage to this tiny State's economy which is hugely dependent on overseas remittances.

Already in deep crisis because of the general economic recession, globalisation-induced depression in the agriculturesector and the increasing flow of return migration from the Gulf,

Kerala is in for troubled times.

More than any other State, Kerala's economy (and day-to-day life too) is sensitive to external influences because of the crucial role of the external remittances and also because of the globally-linked markets for its main produce like rubber, pepper, seafood etc.

While the 1991 Gulf War caused damage to certain sectors of the economy, the impact of the American aggression in Afghanistan would be much wider. The loss of jobs (Gulf jobs) was direct in the aftermath of the Gulf War, but this time around it would be more indirect, thanks to globalisation and the recession in the IT sector.

Of course, several overseas Malayalis are sure to lose their jobs.

Tourism, perhaps the only sector which has registered cheerful uptrend in the past few years, will be the biggest loser in the immediate future. Travel agents in Kochi report about one-third fall in business after the WTC collapse and heavy cancellation of air tickets after the American attack on Afghanistan began a week ago.

Airlines have cancelled several flights to and from Kerala. Recently a Mumbai-Kochi Boeing flight landed at the Cochin International Airport at Nedumbassery airport with just 15 passengers, indicating the extent of the crisis in the travel industry.

The Chief Minister, Mr. A.K. Antony's ambitious plan of `Rs. 50,000-crore investment in five years' might be hit badly if the Afghan crisis continues. How effective would be the global investor meet planned by the State Government to be held in Kochi in April is anybody's guess.

The Gulf War fallout

In the context of the Afghan war, it would be interesting to recall the impact of the Gulf War, conducted by another American administration under another President, Mr. George Bush (the current U.S. President's father), on Kerala.

The State, particularly its countryside, has not yet fully recovered from the knock it received from the Iraq-Kuwait war.

Hundreds of unfinished houses in the villages stand out as the tragic symbols of the Gulf War. Their owners had to flee Iraq and Kuwait leaving behind their jobs and savings. Back home without money or job, they could not complete their dream houses.

The Gulf War had wrecked several lives. Thousands of people working in Kuwait, Iraq and also in the neighbouring Arab countries had lost their jobs. Gulf families living in relative prosperity found themselves in poverty overnight.

Real estate prices had crashed and there was a sudden dullness in the construction sector. (Interestingly, one positive impact of the Kuwait war was that the Gulf Malayalis turned away from building ostentatious houses and opted for productive investment of their earnings; they had realised that the `Gulf dream' would not last forever).

Ten years after the Gulf War, the process of handing out compensation to the Kerala victims is still not over. In India, Kerala accounted for the highest number of people qualifying for the compensation offered by the United Nations Commission for Compensation.

It was the Gulf War that triggered the decline of Kerala's `Gulf prosperity.' This decline snowballed in the recent years as Gulf jobs became increasingly scarce.

Scarcity apart, the heavy fall in wages was a big let down. Wages in the Gulf came down to less than half of what they used to be.

Aside from the economic fallout, the Gulf War had several social impacts on Kerala. Remember the series of suicides that took place in the `Gulf pockets' in months following the war? In fact, the practice of `family suicide' really started off in the aftermath of the Gulf War when a few Gulf families had ended their lives.

An interesting impact was the Gulf Malayali's fall from grace in the rural society's reckoning. Before the Gulf War, the Gulf Malayali had chips on his shoulder and he commanded awe and admiration from the rural folk.

On the `marriage market,' the Gulf Malayali was a blue-chip groom. Young women dreamt of marrying `Gulf men' and parents hunted for Gulf sons-in-law. The Gulf War irrevocably changed this; and now, the Gulf man is among the least sought-after grooms.

Unlike the Gulf War, the impact of the Afghan war on Kerala would mostly be economic. Globalisation and liberalisation would add to this fallout.

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Section  : Southern States
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