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Sunday, October 21, 2001

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Limited liaison

By Vladimir Radyuhin

RUSSIA has backed U.S. strikes in Afghanistan, but an emerging clash of interests between Moscow and Washington may hamper their cooperation in the region.

The President, Mr. Vladimir Putin, has pledged non-military aid to the operation, sharing intelligence information on the Taliban and Osama bin Laden bases. Russia has also stepped up military assistance to the Northern Alliance, the only organised opposition force in Afghanistan. Besides, Moscow's allies in Central Asia have offered support facilities for the U.S. operation in Afghanistan.

Russia has ruled out any direct military participation, refusing not only to send its bombers or troops to Afghanistan, but even denying air space to U.S. planes.

Moscow is largely sceptical about the anti-terrorist value of the U.S. strikes in Afghanistan, regarding them as a largely psychological exercise to heal the American trauma from the September 11 attacks. Mr. Putin pointedly warned against fighting terrorism by striking at its fruit with a stick instead of reaching for its roots. Moscow is convinced that the Taliban and the Al-Qaeda should be fought on the ground with the Afghan opposition forces. Nevertheless, it has gone along with the U.S.- led operation hoping it will help do away with the Taliban regime, which it regards as a threat to Central Asia. Also, support for the American war has helped Russia win greater acceptance in the West for its own war in Chechnya.

Before long, it has transpired that Russia and the U.S. pursue different agendas in Afghanistan. While Washington sees a role for ``moderate'' sections of the Taliban in a future political setup in Afghanistan, Moscow is opposed to inducting the militia in any form. Moscow has been pouring weapons to the friendly Northern Alliance, whereas the U.S. has been trying to split the alliance by backing only the Uzbek leader, Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum, while denying air support to the Tajik component of the Alliance. This is seen in Moscow as an attempt to prevent the Northern Alliance from gaining leverage in any post-Taliban power sharing, and also as part of a broader nexus between the U.S. and Uzbekistan to give America a foothold in the region.

Uzbekistan, which has been the most forthcoming among the Central Asian states in offering its military bases to the Americans, sees the new partnership with the U.S. as a golden opportunity to establish itself as a regional superpower. The Uzbek President, Mr. Islam Karimov, apparently counts on massive U.S. financial aid to prevent an Islamic backlash at home.

The American tactic of weakening Russian influence in Afghanistan may intensify rivalry between the two countries and affect the course of the military operation in Afghanistan. It is vital for Moscow to keep northern Afghanistan under the control of forces friendly to Russia. At a meeting with Russia's top military brass last week, Mr. Putin is reported to have decided to step up arms supplies to the forces of Gen. Mohammad Qassim. Other options include providing air support to the Northern Alliance from Russia's bases in Tajikistan and beefing up the anti-Taliban forces with ethnic Tajiks and Uzbeks serving in the Russian 201st army division in Tajikistan.

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