PM's travels: focus on missile defence

By C. Raja Mohan

NEW DELHI, OCT. 28. The Prime Minister, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee's travels to Moscow and Washington next week is likely to put India back in the middle of the international politics of missile defence. And India may be in a good position now to make the best of its earlier support to missile defence.

In enthusiastically backing the American proposals for a radically new global strategic framework on nuclear weapons in early May, hours after the U.S. President, Mr. George Bush, announced it, Mr. Vajpayee's Government surprised the world and drew political flak at home. But now as the Russian President, Mr. Vladimir Putin, and Mr. Bush inch towards a deal on missile defences, Mr. Vajpayee can claim a vindication of his decision to depart boldly from the traditional disarmament positions. The issue is likely to figure prominently in Mr. Vajpayee's talks in both Moscow and Washington.

The biggest criticism of the Bush proposals was that they could lead to an arms race between Russia and America. But if Moscow and Washington come to an understanding on the issue and move in coordination towards missile defences, much of the opposition to missile defences is likely to lose ground.

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Reports in recent days suggest, Washington and Moscow are close to finessing their differences on the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. America has been threatening to walk out of the ABM Treaty, which it believes is standing in the way of missile defences. Moscow, however, has insisted that the treaty is the centre-piece of global strategic stability.

As Mr. Bush hosts Mr. Putin at his Texas ranch in the middle of next month, the announcement of a broad accord seems to be at hand. This follows intense consultations between the sides in recent months. The Texas meeting will be the fourth between Mr. Bush and Mr. Putin since the summer of this year, and they may be on the verge of a historic redefinition of relations between Russia and the West.

The unexpected but strong Russian support to the U.S. in its war against international terrorism after September 11 appears to have increased the prospects of an agreement on missile defences between the sides. Washington may be more ready to accommodate Russian concerns now.

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Mr. Vajpayee will be meeting both leaders on the eve of the anticipated American rapprochement with Russia in Texas. Mr. Vajpayee can derive the maximum advantage by putting across a consistent message on the new strategic framework in both capitals.

Five elements must form the core of Mr. Vajpayee's brief on missile defences. First is a call for radical reductions in the nuclear arsenals of Moscow and Washington. Mr. Putin and Mr. Bush appear poised to move towards nuclear reductions, and Mr. Vajpayee can press them to go the farthest distance possible.

Second, there is a misperception that India's strong support to missile defences is rooted in India's desire to undermine the current global non-proliferation regime built around the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Mr. Vajpayee should reaffirm India's strong commitment to abide by the obligations of the nuclear weapon states under the NPT - not to promote the spread of nuclear weapons. He should point to India's impeccable non- proliferation record and a willingness to strengthen the global non-proliferation regime.

Third, Mr. Vajpayee should emphasise India's readiness to support counter-proliferation measures to sternly deal with State and non-State actors who threaten to disrupt international peace and security through the use of weapons of mass destruction.

Fourth, India must underline its conviction expressed earlier that a ``defensive transition'' in the global nuclear environment is inevitable. While strongly supporting the introduction of missile defences, India must underline the importance of continuing negotiations between Moscow and Washington in facilitating a smooth defensive transition.

Finally, India must seek for greater technological cooperation with Moscow and Washington in building its own capabilities in the area of missile defences.

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In a recent visit to Washington, this correspondent found book stores prominently displaying volumes on Islam, West Asia and Afghanistan. Americans are voracious readers and now want a better understanding of the Muslim world that they have been condemned to engage deeper than ever before.

The noted Pakistani journalist, Mr. Ahmad Rashid's volume on the Taliban is selling like hot cakes. Released a couple of years ago, the book aimed at specialist audiences. But it has been reissued in the U.S. after September 11, with a print run apparently of 3,50,000 copies. American popular interest in Islam is growing. And here is one that many in the world would like to pick up - The Complete Idiot's Guide to Islam. Simplified, it is; nevertheless a good place to end one's ignorance of Islam.

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