Don't take Russia for granted

By C. Raja Mohan

NEW DELHI, OCT. 31. As the Prime Minister, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee, heads for Moscow, Washington and London at a critical moment in world affairs, India needs to consolidate the diplomatic gains in the last three years.

Mr. Vajpayee is also likely to try and limit the potential damage from the developments since the September 11 attacks on the United States, in particular the return of Pakistan to the affections of the international community.

As a sense of uncertainty creeps into India's assessment of its national security environment, the steadfastness of the relationship with Russia begins to acquire a renewed prominence.

But India would be making a mistake if it takes Moscow for granted. Russia is pursuing a significant transformation of its internal policies as well as its external orientation.

Under President Vladimir Putin, a more self-assured Russia is emerging from the relative decline of the last decade. The new Russia is at once pragmatic and ready to play hard ball on its perceived national interests. Sentimentalism has little place in new Russia's scheme of things.

``Fine words about friendship'', as a diplomatic observer here cautioned, dominated Indo-Russian relationship in the past. Words alone will no longer suffice.

If India wants to remain relevant to Russia, New Delhi will have to shed the old ways of engaging Moscow. It must reach out to the new Russian elite and the more globalised younger generation Russians. The market, and not political diktat, will be the new driver of business between the two nations.

India often tends to assume that Russia is a mere continuation of the old Soviet Union. The sentimental longing in India for the Soviet Union either leads to unrealistic expectations or downright insensitivity towards the self-image of the new Russian leadership.

If the old attitudes linger in New Delhi it may be in for some surprise. Russia is believed to be rather upset at the continuing perception of it in the Indian establishment as a ``non-market economy''.

Hopefully, the government will act in time to remove this characterisation and consciously undertake to reverse the traditional mindsets in India about Russia.

Last year, when Mr. Putin was here, he intervened to correct economic statistics from Russia being cited by an Indian functionary at an occasion to facilitate the Russian leader.

There is no doubt that Indo-Russian relationship has emerged reasonably intact from the many changes that have taken over New Delhi and Moscow in the last decade.

But both today have interests elsewhere that they pursuing with some vigour. For the last three years, the United States has emerged as the principal diplomatic preoccupation of India.

While there may be some unease in Moscow at the direction of Indo-U.S. relations, Russia itself is seeking a radical transformation of its ties with Europe, Far East and the United States. Sustained high level interaction and transparency are needed to set at rest any possible suspicions of each other's intentions.

It is not just the United States that will induce some complications into Indo-Russian relations. So will China, which has become one of Russia's top foreign policy priorities and a leading economic partner. Russia and China have recently signed a pact proclaiming strategic partnership.

During Mr. Vajpayee's trip to Moscow, the two sides will emphasise the convergence of their views on Afghanistan and international terrorism. But politics alone may not be enough to sustain the Indo-Russian relationship over the long term.

India and Russia must find a new basis to build their commercial cooperation at a time when both countries are attempting to come to terms with globalisation. In this context it is regrettable that the business part of Mr. Vajpayee's visit had to be cancelled.

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