Poor nations may decide Doha meet outcome

By C. Rammanohar Reddy

DOHA, NOV. 9. In an unusual development, the outcome of the fourth ministerial conference of the World Trade Organisation could well be determined not by the traditional big players at the WTO, the Quad group of the U.S., E.U., Canada and Japan or large developing countries like India, Brazil and Malaysia, but by the position that some of the world's poorest countries - the least developed countries, the Africa group at the WTO and the members of the Africa Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) group of countries - take on the launch of a new round of trade talks.

Angry about the costs they say they have incurred in implementing the 1994 Uruguay Round agreements of GATT and unconvinced about the benefits they are being promised if they sign on to negotiating new multilateral trade agreements, the poorest countries of Asia, Africa and the Caribbean have been the most resolute among all countries in opposing a fresh negotiating agenda at the WTO.

``The attitude of these countries is extremely worrying; if they maintain their current position over their next few days it could result in the failure of the Doha conference,'' said a senior WTO official, indicating the seriousness of the poor countries' challenge. But what will be failure to some is a success to others. ``We simply cannot afford to sign up for more new negotiations,'' said Mr. Iddi Mohammad Simba, Trade Minister of Tanzania, which heads the LDC bloc. ``Our refusal to agree to negotiations on the Singapore issues - foreign investment, competition policies, transparency in government procurement and trade facilitation - is not born of any ideological conviction but of our inability to negotiate more agreements,'' said Mr. Simba referring to the conviction of many poor countries which with under-staffed and inadequately manned missions in Geneva have been struggling to keep up with the innumerable technicalities and opacity of the WTO process.

As the attention of the U.S. and E.U. has been focussed on persuading India, Malaysia, Pakistan and Indonesia to support a new round of trade liberalisation talks, the world's poorest countries have quietly gone about consolidating their stand. In meeting after meeting earlier this year, at Zanzibar, Abuja, Washington and earlier this week at Brussels, ministers and officials from the LDC, the Africa and ACP blocs have signalled in no uncertain terms that they cannot be taken for granted and will not approve in any form the launch of new negotiations that have become so important for the E.U. and the U.S.

The complaints are many. One is that each new WTO agreement costs money to implement in the form of creating institutional arrangements, while the returns are often negative. A World Bank study found that merely establishing the institutions necessary for implementing the TRIPS agreement would cost each country as much as $150 million, often exceeding their health budgets. Another complaint is that the promised benefits of the 1994 GATT agreement in the form of greater market access have not materialised. A third and very vociferous complaint is that despite all claims of a change in attitude, they continue to be marginalised in the WTO decision-making process. The most recent example that is cited is the preparatory process and contents of the draft ministerial declaration that the LDCs say has completely ignored their concerns.

The big question is how the world's poorest countries can stand up to pressure and inducements from the richest economies. Officials and ministers dismiss speculation that all this is posturing and that the poor countries will fall in line at the last minute. ``We will not budge in our opposition,'' said Mr. Simba.

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