Looking beyond the Taliban

BUILDING A VIABLE alternative political arrangement for Afghanistan is proving to be as frustrating and elusive a goal as defeating the Taliban and its benefactor, Osama bin Laden. A full month after the U.S.-led alliance against terror launched its bombing campaign against the Taliban, efforts to work out a power-sharing arrangement have been stymied by internal contradictions, factional rivalries, clashing interests and the power games of the neighbouring countries. In fact, all the factors that have been behind the trauma and tragedy of Afghanistan in the past half a century are in play. The apparent early gains that Washington and its allies in Europe claimed in bringing out Zahir Shah, the ousted former King, and helping forge an alliance between him and his old enemies, the Northern Alliance, have been short-lived. In the last few weeks, the U.S.- led alliance has suffered a series of political setbacks. One charismatic Pashtun leader whom the U.S. seemed to prop up as a possible coalition leader in a post-Taliban setup has paid with his life and another has had to be plucked to safety from the battle ground even as Zahir Shah waits impatiently in his exile in Rome. Meanwhile, the Northern Alliance, the present favourite by default of the U.S. and Russia and composed of non-Pashtun factions, inches its way forward, looking to Washington to pave the way to the seat of power in Kabul through the most intensive bombing that the world has seen in several decades.

There are no signs yet that the hold of the radical Islamic group has been loosened over much of Afghanistan. But the urgency of evolving an alternative coalition cannot be overemphasised since a power vacuum in the event of the Taliban collapsing in the face of the bombing onslaught can push the country back into civil war. During his interactions in Washington, the Prime Minister, Mr. A. B. Vajpayee, has renewed New Delhi's suggestion that a group of interested countries be formed immediately for Afghanistan's political reconciliation and economic reconstruction. Considering that Afghan society has remained rooted to ethnic, tribal and religious ties that provide links in different directions, it has been impossible to reconcile the interests of the countries around, besides the long-term objectives of the U.S. and its allies. Washington supports the Rome process with the focus on the former King, himself a Pashtun, while Iran and Pakistan oppose Zahir Shah for their own reasons. Pakistan, with whose support the Taliban captured power five years ago, opposes the Northern Alliance, and its appeal for including ``moderate'' Taliban elements has proved a non-starter with most doubting if moderates could have survived in the outfit. In this tangled web of interests, hope rests on the Six Plus Two group - composed of the six nations bordering Afghanistan, including Iran and Pakistan, plus the U.S. and Russia - and on the experience and expertise it has gathered in the two decades it has striven in vain to bring normality to Afghanistan.

The Six Plus Two group plus the United Nations. As the international community continues the search for an acceptable leader from the Pashtuns who form the majority in Afghanistan, the U.N. has also been active on the sidelines and in the shadows, rushing humanitarian relief and coordinating. With winter fast approaching, caring for the population is the immediate task, daunting beyond words. In the longer term, salvaging a country ravaged by two decades of wars can be an equally immense effort. Unlike in the past, however, Afghanistan this time will not be left to fend for itself. The U.S. and the European Union have the blueprint prepared of a massive plan of reconstruction. It is an area in which India can provide assistance without inviting the wrath of rivals in the neighbourhood.

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