The U.S.- Russia consensus

THE U.S. PRESIDENT, Mr. George W. Bush, and his Russian counterpart, Mr. Vladimir Putin, seem eager to downplay divisive issues that can only cloud their joint commitment to combat international terrorism. This explains their apparent move to place on the backburner a highly sensitive question regarding the future of the old Soviet-American Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty. At the same time, their shared desire to rise above their differences over the ABM Treaty, a ``Cold War relic'' in the eyes of the Bush administration, need not be dismissed as mere expediency. The truth is that both Mr. Bush's White House and the post- Soviet Kremlin under Mr. Putin are aware that a revision of the treaty or indeed its abrogation will require a closer scrutiny. The new buzz over the fight against globalised terror is so important that the ABM Treaty, for long a confidence- building measure (CBM), cannot be hastily dismantled to the detriment of the newly evolving Russo-American friendship. The differences are now seen as a ``smaller element'' of these ties. It is a different matter, though, that the two leaders have not so far worked out how to face the terror issues such as those in Chechnya of direct concern to Moscow. Overall, Mr. Bush and Mr. Putin recognise the need to address nuclear terrorism, an issue that is still seen by many as an esoteric hypothesis. Arguably, missile defences, which are not permissible under the original fine print of the ABM Treaty, will be required to deal with nuclear terrorism. So, any updated alternative to the treaty must be well conceived, given its value as a CBM whose time in history may not have fully passed.

The latest extended summit between Mr. Bush and Mr. Putin was their fourth in the last few months, and their public postures reflect a unique comfort level. On this occasion, they have carried interpersonal diplomacy to a new level by spending time together at Mr. Bush's ranch in Texas after the formal sessions got over in Washington. At the end, the new dynamics were also highlighted by the question-answer session that the two leaders held with American high school students in a relaxed ambience. The intended message is now loud and clear: the normality in the U.S.-Russian ties is real and the two leaders are keen on fostering it with care so that it can last beyond the presidencies of the two men. What does this mean in actual practice?

Mr. Bush is confident that his differences with Russia on the future of the ABM Treaty are manageable. Mr. Putin, too, sees the existence of sufficient common ground to resolve the dispute in due course without much ado. With the ABM irritant off the radar screen for the present, the two countries have identified new priorities - the ongoing anti-terror campaign and the oft- repeated pledge to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles across the world. These two issues impinge directly on the methods required to sustain global stability over a long period until a new international order can be put in place. At a different level, these priorities will also provide Russia with a chance to enter the inner circle of the leaders who initiated the current international campaign against terror. Of particular interest to the U.S. is the Russian intelligence on the terror networks connected with Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaeda. Although international scepticism is strong in relation to the capabilities of non-state players like Al-Qaeda to acquire and deliver viable nuclear weapons as instruments of terror, Russia now appears to share America's anxiety.

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