Pak. hand in Mazar incident?

By Atul Aneja

ALMATY (Kazakhstan), NOV. 26. As the scrutiny of the macabre killings of around 300 Afghans including surrendered Taliban forces in a fortress in Mazar-e-Sharif begins, there is a distinct impression here that a Pakistani hand in the incident cannot be ruled out.

According to highly placed sources, the core objective of the perpetrators of the violence is to discredit the Northern Alliance. The impression here is that the incident is meant to provoke the Northern Alliance to carry out indiscriminate revenge killings.

The timing of the incident is striking. Despite surrender by a large number of Taliban militia men, including the prisoners who were taken to the Mazar-e-Sharif fort, hardcore members of the grouping still remain in Kunduz. Northern Alliance forces are therefore being tempted not to take any more prisoners in Kunduz.

The assessment here is that the Northern Alliance will be provoked to show brutality in future as well, especially in the eastern Afghan city of Jalalabad. A bloodbath in the Taliban hold-out of Kandahar is also not ruled out.

In case the Northern Alliance falls in the trap of retaliatory violence, it will undermine its cause immensely. Sources pointed out that the exercise of restraint by the Alliance, especially by Tajik forces after taking over Kabul, despite considerable provocation has brought it considerable credit.

But significantly, last night's incident has taken place, not in Tajik areas, but in a zone that is dominated by the Uzbek forces of General Rashid Dostum.

General Dostum's forces in the past have shown considerable personal courage, but are not exactly known for their military discipline. Their propensity to acquire a vengeful profile cannot be ruled out.

Interestingly, the Northern Alliance is being provoked right on the eve of the intra-Afghan conference in Bonn. Any wrong move on the part of the Alliance now will powerfully echo across the globe during the conference.

In fact, amplification of Northern Alliance violence can provide an opening to its rivals to wriggle into contention for a political role in post-conflict Afghanistan. As of now, western countries are keen on identifying around 160 individuals to run the future Afghan Government. Around 60 of them belong to the Northern Alliance that are already exercising authority in

Kabul. Another 40, it is assumed would be represented by the King Zahir Shah faction. But the identification of the remain 60 Pashtuns is yet to be completed.

Northern Alliance rivals, can however upset these calculations by generating an international outcry against the grouping by provoking it to unleash indiscriminate violence.

Pakistan's hand in provoking the fire-fight in Mazar-e-Sharif is suspected on two counts. First, Islamabad holds the Northern Alliance responsible for marginalising its influence in post- conflict Afghanistan. By marching into Kabul, the Northern Alliance has ensured that its own interests as well as those of its key supporters - Iran, Russia and India - are firmly protected. Pakistan, which had invested heavily in the Taliban operations since the early 90s, has suffered in the process. That explains its deep-seated animosity towards the Alliance and its determination to make the latter pay on the ground.

Second, the presence of a large number of Pakistanis , including some suspected regular troops in Kunduz has caused deep embarrassment to Islamabad. In fact, key Central Asian countries, Iran and Russia have talked about the evacuation of top Pakistan officers from Kunduz. The ferrying of Pakistan regulars by helicopters, sources say, is also going on at a feverish pace in Kandahar.

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Section  : International
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