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Karzai, Fahim and Qanooni (right) in Kabul... will the bonhomie last?

HAMID KARZAI has been given the mandate to piece together an Afghanistan where peace remains an elusive goal. As he prepares to take over the reins, Mr. Karzai faces formidable challenges from within and without. Feuding warlords, ambitious superpowers and calculating neighbours have all played their part in the past and continue to do so now.

Hope lies, if anywhere, in the pressure that the sole superpower (the United States) can exert on a small country of feuding and feudal people. But the moot point is whether America has the will, determination and capacity to play such a role? A dispassionate and closer examination of the realities on the ground seems to throw up a negative answer. Mr. Karzai is the much-needed Pashtun face to the interim setup and in actuality, his following among the Pashtuns seems limited, given the way he burnt his fingers over the Kandahar surrender deal. A day after being picked to head the new dispensation in Kabul, Mr. Karzai announced, with fanfare, a general amnesty for all those prepared to surrender to the Northern Alliance forces.

But in less than 24 hours he reversed his statement. Obviously under pressure from the U.S. Mr. Karzai said he had never talked about amnesty and that he had merely guaranteed ``security'' to those willing to lay down their arms. Later, as bloody feuds broke out among various warlords for control of Kandahar and other provinces vacated by the Taliban, Mr. Karzai was reduced to the status of a mute spectator. The Taliban supremo, Mullah Omar, has disappeared and no one has a clue about the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden either.

The disappearances of Mullah Omar and Osama have their own repercussions for the Karzai administration and its stability. Southern Afghanistan would continue to be the hunting ground for not only the top two but also the remaining elusive targets of the militia and Al-Qaeda. No one knows how long the international coalition will continue its operation.

It is no coincidence that even as the Northern Alliance was in the grip of factional feuds, a group of former Ministers and diplomats of the Taliban militia surfaced in Islamabad to announce the revival of an old party. Their avowed objective is to restore peace in Afghanistan but the underlining message is clear. The Taliban as a ruling entity might be a thing of the past but its mindset is very much alive and kicking. It is anyone's guess if the group was acting on its own or had the blessings of Islamabad.

Besides the war in southern Afghanistan, the `war' within the Northern Alliance for the spoils of power should be of no less concern to Mr. Karzai. There was enough indication in the outburst of Prof. Burhanuddin Rabbani on the Bonn Agreement. At a press conference in Kabul, he alleged that ``foreign powers'' had imposed a new interim government on the war-shattered country. ``We hope this will be the last time that foreign countries interfere in our affairs. When we sent our people to the Bonn conference, we did not send them to sign an agreement, we just sent them to discuss and negotiate. They signed the agreement just because the international community pressured them,'' the 61-year-old leader complained.

Prof. Rabbani claimed that he himself had proposed that Mr. Karzai head the interim government, but said he had concerns about other members of the new Cabinet and had wanted the latter to appoint his own Ministers. Implied in the statement was the suggestion that the ``foreign powers'' had left nothing for the new leader and that he would be a mere puppet in their hands.

Though Prof. Rabbani did not mention any names the obvious reference was to the troika of Northern Alliance leaders - Mr. Abdullah Abdullah (Foreign Minister), Mr. Yunus Qanooni (Interior Minister) and Gen. Mohammad Rahim (Defence Minister). It is alleged that these three leaders, who hail from the same village, are manipulating internal and external policies with a view to influencing the Loya Jirga (Grand Assembly) to choose a two-year transitional government when it meets six months from now. By making important policy statements about the interim setup, the three Ministers have given the impression that Mr. Karzai is no more than a nominal head. Even as Mr. Karzai was trying to send across a message of friendship and peace with neighbours, Mr. Qanooni was in New Delhi making serious charges against Pakistan.

Interestingly, the Interior, Foreign and Defence Ministers of the new setup have either already visited or are expected in India soon. Of course, their families are there, but what has landed Mr. Karzai in a spot is the policy statements they made.

More serious was the note sent by the Uzbek warlord, General Rashid Dostum, to Mr. Lakhdar Brahimi, Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General, expressing his grievances against the new setup.

Mr. Brahimi's spokesman told reporters in Islamabad that the day Mr. Brahimi arrived in Islamabad en route Kabul, he received an envoy for Gen. Dostum. He also received a letter signed by the latter. The envoy and the letter conveyed to Mr. Brahimi the problems Gen. Dostum has with the new interim administration and the lack of seats for his party.

``But the concluding part (of the letter) was the most significant,'' the spokesman said. ``Regardless of the differences we have with our colleagues in the new administration, we will continue to support your efforts and those of the international community to bring peace to Afghanistan. We will continue to support the Bonn process and we will not allow anyone or anything to hamper the implementation of the Bonn accord and the transfer of power,'' he quoted Gen. Dostum as saying. ``Further, he goes on to make a commitment to exert every effort to ensure a secure environment for humanitarian aid convoys, and for the activities of the U.N. agencies and NGOs in Afghanistan. That is a very positive development and a very encouraging one indeed,'' Mr. Brahimi's spokesman said.

The fact that the U.N. Special Representative had to give such an elaborate explanation on the views of Gen. Dostum indicates the intensity of the factional feuds within the Northern Alliance over the Bonn Agreement.

The U.N. representative conceded that the U.N. had never claimed the Bonn Agreement to be fully representative. ``We agree that the agreement has its flaws but it is the best we could do during the time available. You are not going to solve the problems of Afghanistan after two decades of war in a few days in Bonn. We got these groups together because it was the best selection that we could get together in that period of time,'' the spokesman said.

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