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The BJP's game plan in U.P.
By Zoya Hasan
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The intertwined issue of temple and terror is designed to redirect the electorate's attentions from the problems of governance and economic development.
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UNTIL 12/13 happened, it was clear to most observers of the political scene in Uttar Pradesh that the winds of change were blowing across the State. There was an obvious shift in popular perception that did not augur well for the dominant role that the Sangh Parivar and its political instrument, the BJP, have played in the politics of this key State for the past decade. What explains this pattern? What are its implications?
At the outset, it might be useful to identify two broad trends that emphasise the continued centrality of caste politics. The significant political churning under way since the late 1980s has brought into play the numerous lower castes to restructure the power and caste and class privileges of the upper castes. The political assertion and organisation of the lower castes has created a three-fold division in State politics, with the upper castes going with the BJP, the OBCs with the Samajwadi Party and the Dalits with the BSP. Faced with tough competition from the SP and the BSP, both of which have given the lower castes a share of power in proportion to their population, the BJP attempted to court the OBCs by increasing their representation in the candidate list and the Cabinet. Potentially, it can slice off the upwardly mobile groups but only by outbidding the SP. This has proved to be difficult because it would trigger an erosion of its upper caste vote bank. As an alternative, Rajnath Singh proposed a quota-within-quota for the most backward classes, but this too has not worked.
Though Ayodhya has not dampened caste identities, the BJP has sought to keep the dispute alive, even as it downplayed the possibility of building a temple and highlighted the need for a consensually agreed solution. We have seen the extent to which the BJP reaped electoral dividends from the Ayodhya campaign. However, in the parliamentary elections since 1996 the party shunned controversial issues in order to broaden its base of support. At the national level it is attempting to reconcile two very conflicting aims: widening its support base to include those not interested in temples, while continuing to placate and attract hardcore followers of Hindutva hooked on temples and ``Bharat ka ancient gaurav''. Hence, the paradigmatic division of labour between Atal Behari Vajpayee charming the middle classes with his occasional musings and L. K. Advani regularly whipping up enthusiasm for Hindutva. But there is no such disingenuous doublespeak in Uttar Pradesh. An election sans Ayodhya seems an improbability. The media says the temple is being prefabricated off-site in preparation for placement. The FIR filed following the October 17 trespass into the makeshift temple gathers dust. The VHP loudly proclaims: the Mandir would be constructed after March 12 come what may. Yet, all this may not yield electoral gains.
Alarmed by expectations of an imminent decline in political support, the BJP has changed its strategy from Ram temple to the war against terrorism, as its main plank in the Assembly elections. Concentrating on the terror campaign and the diplomatic offensive against Pakistan, the BJP leadership is hoping to turn the tide against its rivals. It is seeking to underplay Hindutva issues to capitalise on the public anger against terror attacks. In Lucknow, the Prime Minister asked various Hindu organisations to put the Ram temple on hold. Political pundits will no doubt interpret this as an attempt to distance the BJP from religious mobilisation signified by the emphasis on the ``national agenda of anti- terrorism'' and ``consensual issues of national security''. To be sure, the de-escalation of rhetoric on the temple would be replaced by escalation on terrorism. For its part, the VHP's religious mobilisers make no distinction between Ayodhya and cross-border terrorism. Indeed, the VHP general secretary announced in Lucknow that war must be declared against Pakistan followed at once by a statement that 500 sants would lead the Ayodhya yatra on January 21 to reach Delhi on January 27. For them the war-like preparations are in sync with the goings on in Ayodhya.
Evidently, temple and terror are the central issues in the election campaign. Common to both crusades will be the deployment of symbolic capital to propagate the message. The BJP's use of its network of VHP-affiliated sadhus and sadhu MPs and MLAs as symbols of Hindutva is part of this projection of the dual messages, as these leaders can act as representatives of both the parliamentary and non-parliamentary wings of the Sangh Parivar. They can adjust the message to fit the venue and the audience. Mr. Vajpayee's appeal to the VHP to defer its temple construction plans in view of the prevailing security environment had the instant backing of the Shankaracharya of Kanchipeeth who wields considerable clout with the VHP. Usually, this type of employment of religious symbols and emotive appeals is situationally determined. Religious specialists in charge of mass mobilisation can ratchet up the tension and exacerbate the communal divide, and the party can periodically water down the function of religion in politics. Such differences and shifting back and forth between rabble-rousing and moderation can be mutually advantageous and can maximise the number of supporters.
Even as the rhetoric of political contestation is focussed on Ayodhya, intellectual and cross-border terrorism, POTO and SIMI, the real politics of the State has centred on distribution of jobs and preferences, privileges and disprivileges. However, the discontent with the BJP Government's performance is all pervasive even among its traditional upper caste vote bank, particularly its inability to provide a clean and efficient administration. What is clear is that the BJP's popularity is waning despite strident appeals to religious identity and patriotism. And so the intertwined issue of temple and terror is designed to redirect the electorate's attention from the problems of governance and economic development to anxiety about national security. The split between governance and elections underlined by the habitual flurry of promises on election eve necessitates it.
While the BJP projected itself as the party that was best equipped to provide a good and stable Government, it has neither improved governance nor developmental work that can bring about material dignity and social security. The last five years have seen an obvious economic and administrative deterioration. Corruption and inefficiency is so rampant that it has overrun virtually every institution, including institutions such as the police and the Judiciary, which are supposed to take action against it. Speed money to get one's work done is so commonplace that it is not even thought to be a corrupt practice, it is money given ``to spur into action a perfectly legal process that would not take place unless a monetary incentive was given''.
Uttar Pradesh is the largest State where growth has been slowest. A chronically disadvantaged State, it is home to five of India's 14 most backward districts. Economic growth has decelerated since 1991. The State has made little progress in reducing poverty since the late 1980s, and over 41 per cent of the population lives below the poverty line. Public services and programmes, particularly those meant for the poor, work hopelessly in the State. The Comptroller and Auditor General's Report (1999) highlights numerous irregularities in the implementation of anti- poverty programmes, such as the Employment Assurance Scheme and Jawahar Rozgar Yojana. The upshot of this irregularity and corruption was lower employment than planned, lower remuneration to labourers than justified, and non-employment of women labourers. Several of the State's problems are politically induced. The Public Distribution System is a prime example of the absence of political will.
Whether the collective rage over the bane of cross-border terrorism will prevail over the shared resentment against locally produced poor governance, inequity, poverty and swelling unemployment remains to be seen. War or no war, indications are that Uttar Pradesh's party system will remain fragmented as ever, with no party representing the political will for structural change and the readiness to promote a public discourse of development that can address the vital concerns of the economic majority.
(The writer is Professor, Centre for Political Studies, JNU.)
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