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Annan's two-track formula
THE UNITED NATIONS Secretary-General, Kofi Annan, has spelt out a "twin-track approach" for long-term peace between India and Pakistan. Holding talks with Pakistan's leaders in Islamabad on his way to Afghanistan, Mr. Annan outlined on Thursday some meaningful but not really novel ideas. He called for "sustained and determined action against (the) extremist armed groups" in Pakistan. The "action" should be "of the kind (already) announced by (the) President (Pervez) Musharraf" of Pakistan, he indicated. As for the other side of the spectrum, he pleaded for "an equally sustained and determined dialogue between Pakistan and India to resolve their differences by peaceful means". While the two-track formula is obviously designed to ease the present high-voltage tensions and improve ties with India in a calibrated fashion as seen from Pakistan, the U.N.'s top mandarin spoke about the "immediate need" for "military de-escalation" on the Pakistan-India border.
In a subtle sense, a specific suggestion that Mr. Annan made during the course of his public diplomacy in Islamabad at this time was spun in a generalised language. It was a call for the "withdrawal of the troops". With India and Pakistan having massed their military personnel along their border in the context of last month's terrorist assault on India's Parliament, it is debatable whether Mr. Annan really kept both these countries in mind for the purposes of a desired troop pullback. Nevertheless, he was in essence responding to media questions in a context dominated by Official Pakistan's offer to respond to a definitive initiative of military de-escalation from the Indian side. More importantly, and also independently of Mr. Annan's public statements, it bears repetition that New Delhi should take the lead in bringing about a military de-escalation in the present context of Pakistan's actions against some of the anti-India terrorist groups and the larger climate of international opinion. As a victim of externally-generated terrorism, India can indeed enhance its moral stature and widen its diplomatic space by being the first to move towards a military de-escalation at this stage. To say this is not to argue that India can afford to lower its vigil or diminish its overall military profile. India's success in test-firing an Agni-class missile on Friday, as part of an ongoing series, may have caused new concerns in Pakistan. Noteworthy, nonetheless, is New Delhi's line that the pre-planned test of a short-range ballistic missile of this kind will not dramatically alter the military dynamics in South Asia. India has, therefore, done well to indicate that the missile test should not be construed as a provocative political message to its neighbours. It is a different question whether this test might at all herald a new signature tune of strategic autonomy in New Delhi's foreign and defence policies.
On a different plane of strategic political importance to India, Mr. Annan has now reaffirmed the status of the old U.N. resolutions on Kashmir under the relevant international law. Mincing no words, he said that "these resolutions cannot be self-fulfilling or self-implementing". Nor was he willing at this stage to characterise those bygone era documents as some "valid" framework. The farthest he would go was to note that the U.N.'s old pronouncements on Kashmir might "offer a certain useful path" in the overall search for peace on the India-Pakistan front. While expressing the "hope" that "elements" of those resolutions could be of some help, Mr. Annan took care to underline bilateralism in India-Pakistan ties. Two of his other India-friendly observations relate to the unlikelihood of a U.N. peace force in respect of Kashmir and the implied message that there are no specific rewards for Pakistan which "is (only) doing its part" under the U.N.'s latest anti-terror mandate of universal applicability.
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