National
Miles to go for Cong. in Western U.P.
By V. Krishna Ananth
SAHRANPUR
Feb. 11.
An hour's drive down NH-58 from Delhi, one is left with an impression that the Congress is indeed on a revival course. As many shops and business establishments on the roadside have the Congress flag fluttering as are the ones from where the BJP's and the Samajwadi Party's flags fly.
But then, take a diversion, a couple of miles on the link roads to one of those hamlets and the story is different. Mohiuddin Pur in the Karkoda Assembly constituency, for instance, reflects the ground reality. " The Congress may be visible from the highway. But then this is restricted to the apparent; the party does not exist anywhere in the interior regions'' said Sohanbeer Singh Tewatia, a quack with a flourishing business across Mohiuddin Pur railway station. The emergence of the BSP in this region has put paid to Congress hopes of a revival.
The story is the same across the villages on either side of NH 58 from Ghaziabad to Meerut and even beyond. Having entrenched itself among the Dalits — young and old alike — Ms. Mayawati's party (Kanshi Ram is no longer the icon for the Dalit Bahujans here) is indeed the only outfit in Western Uttar Pradesh that could lay claim to a substantial vote-base. And the level of empathy with the BSP's cause is reflected in the way Satish, hardly in his teens, reacted. Hanging around his uncle's pan shop, this boy made things very clear; "it may take long for `behanji' (that's how Mayawati is addressed by the BSP cadre) to head a Government. But we will wait for that day.''
The BSP's consolidation in Western Uttar Pradesh may not be a new story for this election. Instead, the party was a force even earlier. But then, happening as it does, in the larger context of the visible erosion of the Samajwadi Party's support base among the Muslims, the BSP's consolidation remaining intact is a factor that could lead to a stark change in the poll outcome from here.
Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi party is no longer the natural choice with the Muslims in Western Uttar Pradesh; after having sustained its organisation here only on the basis of the support from the Muslim community (unlike in the Central and Eastern regions of the State, Western UP does not have any significant Yadav population), Mr. Yadav is no longer seen as the strongest counterforce to the BJP as he was in the aftermath of December 6, 1992. With the Muslim community now no longer angry (as they were in the past) with the Congress, the Samajwadi party has been rendered weaker than it was. And with the Lok Dal legacy no longer on his side, thanks to Ajit Singh joining the BJP alliance, Mulayam is in trouble.
It may be true that there is palpable anger against the BJP, due to its non-performance since March 1997; but then, this is not leading to a groundswell of support for the Samajwadi Party. Indeed, the alliance with the Ajit Singh's Lok Dal could be the only factor that could save the BJP from a wipe-out in Western Uttar Pradesh.
While the rhetoric among the leaders that the alliance has revived the spirit of 1967 — when the Jan Sangh with Charan Singh could wipe out Indira Gandhi's Congress from the region — is not reflected on the ground and Ajit Singh's clout among the Jat farmers is certainly no patch on his father's, the BJP could not have bargained for a better deal this time. The alliance alone has ensured the BJP's presence here despite a section of the upper castes now standing by the Congress only to register their anger against the BJP.
All these lead to a scenario in Western Uttar Pradesh where the ruling BJP is likely to suffer substantial losses in terms of the number of seats from the region. The gainer in this sense could be the BSP, thanks to being the only party that commands a stable voter base; the Samajwadi Party, in this sense may appear to be down but is certainly not out. And as for the Congress, the party may register an increase in the percentage of votes polled, thanks to the erosion of the support base of the BJP (from among the upper castes) and the Samajwadi Party (the Muslim community).
But then, the gains will only be in terms of the vote percentage. It is miles to go for the Congress in Western Uttar Pradesh before the party gets into the reckoning.
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