National
Cong. may fall short of majority
By Barun Das Gupta
IMPHAL
Feb. 11.
The fragile politics of Manipur has forced another mid-term Assembly election in two years. The question uppermost in the minds of the people is: will the elections slated for February 14 and 21 give a stable government that will last five years?
The prospect for this does not appear bright. Most political parties agree that it will be a hung Assembly. The Congress is likely to emerge as the single largest party, but short of a simple majority. Till the other day, the Congress was hoping to reach the halfway mark in the 60-member House. But the situation changed radically on February 7.
On that day, all the 47 Naga candidates, except the former Chief Minister, Rishang Keishing, from all political parties contesting in the hills (which account for 20 of the 60 seats) were invited to a meeting at Senapati and made to sign a declaration by the United Naga Council (which Mr. Keishing calls the "overground mouthpiece" of the NSCN(I-M) that they would resign if the UNC called upon them to do so for the cause of Naga unity.
The `Senapati Declaration' has harmed the Congress prospects. Mr. Keishing says: "The NSCN(I-M) is determined to defeat us. It has sent its cadre to the villages for contacting elders and other organisations, asking them not to vote for the Congress. Our candidates are being threatened, intimidated and kidnapped.''
The Congress candidates for Tengnoupal and Chandel constituencies were forced to withdraw from the contest. Mr. Keishing wonders why the NSCN(I-M) is so much against the Congress, especially when it was the Congress that had started the dialogue with it when Narasimha Rao was the Prime Minister.
The situation is not very different in the valley either. The Congress president, Sonia Gandhi's public meeting at Imphal on February 9 flopped because of a boycott call given by the Revolutionary People's Front (RPF). It directed the bus and truck owners not to ply their vehicles on that day to prevent the Congress supporters from attending the meeting.
The Congress was planning to get 50,000 people for the rally. Because of the boycott call, it had to be satisfied with a modest turnout of four to five thousand people, mostly from Imphal. Evidently, the writ of the militants runs even in the State capital.
Individual Congress candidates have been served with extortion notices by four to five militant groups demanding Rs. 3 to 5 lakhs. "The total comes to Rs. 15 to Rs. 20 lakhs per candidate,'' said Mr. Keishing.
Despite all this, the Congress may finish ahead of the others. Partywise, the Congress has fielded 58 candidates, followed by the Federal Party of Manipur (49), the BJP (46), the MSCP (42), the NCP (33), the Samata (31), the Democratic People's Party (23) and the Manipur National Congress (23). The last party was formed by the former Chief Minister, W. Nipamacha Singh, after he was ousted from the MSCP, the party he founded, by Chouba Singh, a former Union Minister of State.
The CPI has put up 16 candidates, all in the valley, and the MPP 14. Some smaller parties are also in the fray. Mr. Keishing believes the Congress will be able to form a government with the help of like-minded parties such as the CPI.
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