The Hindu : Modi has the last laugh

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Sunday, Apr 14, 2002

Other States

Other States - Gujarat

Modi has the last laugh

By Manas Dasgupta

The Gujarat Chief Minister, Narendra Modi, arrives at the BJP national executive meeting in Panaji on Saturdary. — PTI

GANDHINAGAR April 13. The Gujarat Chief Minister, Narendra Modi, has emerged triumphant. He has made the BJP leadership sign his will on the dotted lines and has even succeeded in changing the Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee's stand at the cost of diluting his secular credentials.

Mr. Modi has got what he wanted, dissolution of the State Assembly and seeking a fresh mandate from the people. He had been toying with the idea of early elections and held several surveys to study the impact of the post-Godhra communal violence on voters. As the situation stands today, the outcome of the elections may be a foregone conclusion, a victory for the BJP and possibly with an even greater margin than the 115 seats in the 182-member House it holds at present.

Mr. Modi seems to have even made the Opposition to act on the script written by him. Aware that the removal of Mr. Modi in the communally-surcharged atmosphere and holding of elections could have disastrous consequences for the Congress, the local party leaders initially were reluctant to demand the Chief Minister's resignation. But the party's central leadership may have failed to read the ground reality in the State or was misguided by the State's over-ambitious leaders in demanding his removal.

The Opposition demand for his removal has made the task easy for the BJP leadership to seek a fresh mandate without the risk of exposing its "communal character". To the Gujarat people of the State it has given the impression that the BJP was not trying to take political advantage of the riots, but was forced into it by the Opposition. The message would be important for Mr. Modi to try to change the fence-sitters who were tending to go away from the BJP because of the overdose of violence.

For the Congress, it has not only lost the diehard Hindu votes, the number of which has increased manifold in the Godhra carnage and the post-Godhra violence in the State, it has also failed to consolidate the minority votes. The Muslims hit by the riots and forced into spending harrowing days in the relief camps, are equally unhappy with the Congress which did not even stand by them in their hour of crisis. To ensure that it did not lose its own share of the majority votes, the Congress considerably diluted its minority card.

Their strong anti-BJP sentiments, accentuated by the post-Godhra violence, may force the minorities into the Congress fold but a substantial section of the riot-victims may prefer to stay away from the elections which would cost the main opposition dearly. The minorities have belatedly realised that the last 40 days of disturbances were only to facilitate the BJP to play its communal card. "The BJP's communal character stands exposed with the party going for fresh elections,'' a Muslim leader commented. But it matters little to Mr. Modi — the strong polarisation of votes on the communal lines will be enough to ensure the BJP's victory in the elections.

The Pradesh Congress president, Amarsinh Chaudhary, however, believes that the BJP is in for a rude shock and beneath the surface of communal polarisation, the people are disgusted with the BJP. The Congress believes that the Kutch-Saurashtra and the south Gujarat regions by and large remained unaffected because of the people's disenchantment with the BJP while the overdose of violence in the north and central Gujarat had made people sick of the ruling party. But the threat of violence issued by a section of the people in Rajkot in the event of Mr. Modi's removal, indicates that communalism has not spared the Saurashtra region.

Mr. Modi, however, will be in no hurry to go for elections immediately. He is likely to allow time to help cool down tempers and the situation becomes conducive for the Election Commission to hold polling. Sources close to Mr. Modi indicate that he might prefer to hold the elections in September or October. Considering that disturbances in some parts of Ahmedabad have flared up during the last few days, a minority backlash in the meantime would be a huge bonus point for the BJP. He is also likely to use the time to clear the party of the deadwood and pack the new team with people personally loyal to him.

It will be the moderates in the party who will have to run for cover. In Mr. Modi's BJP, there will be no place for moderates who felt stifled during the communal holocaust but in the changed political scenario can ill-afford to volunteer to quit the party.

Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Other States

Stories in this Section

Modi has the last laugh

One killed in police firing in Ahmedabad